Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf on course to outperform The latest batch of PMI data from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) suggest that while the oil-rich Gulf economies have lost some steam they are still comfortably outperforming their resource... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf overheating fears fail to materialise The massive fiscal stimulus packages unveiled by Gulf economies in the wake of the Arab Spring raised fears at the time that they would lead to economic overheating and rising inflation. Fortunately... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Stronger export orders boost EM manufacturers A turnaround in export orders has given a boost to emerging world manufacturers, according to the PMIdata released over the last couple of days. However, with domestic demand in emerging economies... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Nov.) Egyptian financial markets have been battered this month amid a deepening constitutional crisis. 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound being supported at unsustainable levels President Morsi’s decision to grant himself sweeping powers has thrown Egypt into a constitutional crisis, the outcome of which is highly uncertain and will frame the near-term outlook for the economy... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What lies ahead for EM domestic demand? Strong domestic demand has partially offset export weakness in many emerging economies this year, particularly in Asia. Looking ahead, prospects for domestic demand look favourable in emerging Asia... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Can emerging economies get rich from commodities? History suggests that an abundance of natural resources makes broader economic development difficult for emerging markets (EMs). This is one reason why we believe that the non-commodity EMs of Asia... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt: two steps forward, one step back It’s been a mixed month for Egypt’s post-revolution economy. The good news is that a $4.8bn programme with the IMF has been agreed at a staff level, paving the way for formal approval by the Fund’s... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation slows, strong pick-up unlikely ahead Emerging Market (EM) inflation slowed in October. Even if inflation does pick up again in the coming months as a result of past increases in commodity prices, the big picture is that any rise is... 23rd November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are emerging market foreign exchange reserves adequate? Foreign exchange reserves in many emerging economies have fallen over the last year, leaving some exposed to a sharp slowdown in export revenues or to a sudden stop in capital inflows. Venezuela is... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Egypt's IMF programme News that Egypt’s government has reached a “staff-level” agreement with the IMF on a $4.8bn programme has greatly reduced the risk of a balance of payments crisis in the country. Radical policy... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown continues Our Saudi Activity Proxy shows that the economic slowdown continued at the end of the last quarter. Overall, it looks like GDP growth slowed to around 2.5% y/y in Q3 from 5.5% y/y in Q2. 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EM currencies are cheap and which are expensive? Within the emerging world, the currencies of Russia, Brazil, Egypt, Venezuela and Turkey look most overvalued. By contrast, the currencies of most Asian economies, including China, look undervalued. 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The global fall-out from Middle East tensions The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas has contributed to the recent resilience of oil prices and the fragility of equities. The avoidance of a full-scale ground war in Gaza might... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account deficits still a source of EM vulnerability Large current account deficits and a reliance on short-term capital flows make a number of emerging economies vulnerable to a deterioration in the external funding environment. Turkey is most exposed... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Signs of stabilisation in Q3 Emerging market (EM) GDP growth appears to have stabilised in Q3. Our GDP tracker suggests that output expanded by about 4.0% y/y, down only slightly from 4.2% y/y in Q2. There have been some positive... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
