Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s presidential election, Saudi budget approved The result of Egypt’s presidential election that concludes next week is a formality, but once the vote is out of the way, it seems likely that economic policy will shift in a more orthodox direction... 7th December 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response November PMIs The batch of PMIs for November from the Middle East and North Africa showed that non-hydrocarbon private sectors in the Gulf have sustained strong momentum at the end of 2023. Elsewhere, while there... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly COP28 and OPEC+, Saudi secures 2030 World Expo While COP28 is getting underway in Dubai, attention may be drawn instead to events in Vienna today, where OPEC+ has reportedly agreed to reduce its oil production by a further 1mn bpd. This would... 30th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: currency, sovereign, banking risks intertwine The falls in the Egyptian pound over the past year have increased the size of commercial banks’ net FX assets, but what has flown under the radar is banks’ growing exposure to the government’s FX debt... 29th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North... 28th November 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ drama ensues, Saudi-China currency swap The surprise delay to the OPEC+ meeting to next week has only added to speculation that the slide in oil prices in recent months and the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas conflict could prompt the group to... 23rd November 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi’s Civil Code, Saudi solar & nuclear, Egypt-Israel gas Saudi Arabia’s new Civil Code should help to remove some of the uncertainty in commercial law and marks another step on the path to raising foreign investment. Meanwhile, a new raft of solar projects... 16th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: recession nearing an end The latest Saudi GDP data paint a downbeat picture in which the recession has deepened amid oil output cuts. But the good news is that the recession looks to be coming to an end. And we think the... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged down from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.6% y/y in October, the weakest pace of inflation in nearly two years, and we expect that inflation will continue to... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: inflation on the way down, but upside risks remain Data over the weekend showed that Egypt’s inflation rate slowed, confirming that September marked the peak, and our baseline scenario is that it will continue to drop back as we head into 2024. The... 13th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi FDI revisions, Egypt-IMF deal, October’s PMIs Saudi Arabia’s revised foreign direct investment data paint a far rosier picture than previously, but there is still work to be done to meet the punchy targets of Vision 2030. Elsewhere, Egypt’s... 9th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How credible are the region’s currency pegs? Persistent balance of payments strains brought pressure on some of the region’s non-oil producing countries who employ fixed exchange rate regimes. FX reserves have been depleted to support currencies... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: That Xi-Biden meet in context – How fracturing is reshaping the global outlook 1700139600 The splintering of the world economy into competing US and China-aligned blocs is dominating the macro and financial and commodities markets outlook.
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM bank resilience improves, but risks continue to lurk Higher profitability has helped to boost EM banks’ financial positions over the past year and reduced the tail of weak banks that might struggle to cope with rising loan losses on their balance sheets... 7th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Where does Saudi Arabia sit in a fracturing world? The past few years have seen Saudi Arabia continue to move away from the US orbit and, as part of our work on global fracturing, we no longer consider Saudi to be unaligned between the US and China... 7th November 2023 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2023) The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left its overnight deposit rate at 19.25% today but, with pressure on the pound mounting and inflation still well above target, there’s a good chance that policymakers... 2nd November 2023 · 2 mins read
