Emerging Markets Trade Monitor No recovery in sight for EM exports The weakness of the global economy continues to keep export growth subdued across Emerging Markets (EMs). Even in Asia, where exports held up relatively well until very recently, growth in trade has... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fears of inflation and unrest to frustrate subsidy reform Subsidies are becoming increasingly unaffordable across the poorer parts of the MENA region. But the threat of higher inflation and social unrest is likely to frustrate efforts at subsidy reform. 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Youth unemployment likely to have risen further Two and a half years on from the Arab Spring uprisings, youth unemployment in the Middle East, which was a key trigger for the unrest, remains high. In fact, we suspect it may have risen over the past... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Construction points to weak EM investment Construction has started the year on a weak note across the emerging world and particularly in those EMs that most need to raise their investment rates, notably Brazil and Russia. This adds weight to... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's government finances need to be brought under control Ongoing political uncertainty has led to a sharp deterioration in the Egyptian government’s finances. The measures required to put them on a more sustainable footing are politically sensitive. But... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing downturn deepens The 25% year-on-year rise in equity prices in advanced economies, combined with rising property prices in some countries, should provide a boost to household consumption. However, we suspect the... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing EM government debt dynamics High public debt and large budget deficits mean that the governments of Egypt, Jordan and Hungary need to tighten fiscal policy. Moreover, despite appearing healthy, the public finances of some... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Too early to say Egypt’s economy has turned the corner Although Egypt’s headline PMI rose sharply in May to reach its highest level in six months, we would caution against reading this as a sign that the economy has turned the corner. Meanwhile, PMIs for... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain's political upheaval to continue to drag on growth Political unrest, a fragile banking sector and a weak fiscal position are all likely to weigh on Bahrain’s economy over the next few years. As a result, we expect it to be one of the worst performers... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs continue to lose steam Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Q1 may have slumped to a three-and-a-half year low, having been hit by a dip in global trade and structural problems in the BRIC economies. 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisian dinar falls on back of IMF deal The Tunisian dinar has been one of the worst performing EM currencies over the past couple of months. Meanwhile, equity markets in the Gulf have continued to rally. 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Demographics will not determine future of EMs Healthy demographics can certainly play a role in supporting growth in emerging markets. However, the future performance of places such as India, the Middle East and Africa, where demographics are... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Is the worst now over for Dubai? Optimism has returned to Dubai’s economy, but its debt problems aren’t fully resolved. Ultimately, we think oil-rich Abu Dhabi will step in to provide emergency financing if needed. But even so, the... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker growth keeps EM central banks in easing mode In aggregate terms, EM monetary policy has been loosened over the past six months. But there has been a big difference between the actions of central banks in each EM region. In Europe and, more... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What next for the EM recovery? The recovery in emerging market (EM) growth during the second half of 2012 has faltered since the start of this year. This is due in large part to renewed weakness in the BRIC economies, which we... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf growing at a healthy pace Growth in the Gulf economies has held up well over the first few months of this year. Admittedly, the weakness of the global economy is weighing on demand for the region’s hydrocarbon exports. But... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
