Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain dollar bond issuance, Egypt softening the blow Bahrain became the latest EM dollar bond issuer this week, and the $2bn raised will help it to meet large upcoming debt repayments. But officials still need to tighten fiscal policy over the coming... 8th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan. 2024) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed for a fourth consecutive month, easing from 33.6% y/y in December to 29.9% y/y in January. We think inflation will continue to slow this year, but a looming... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: downturn over, but a slow recovery in 2024 Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted by 0.9% over the course of 2023 on the back of the Kingdom’s oil output cuts. But the recession ended in Q4 and we think that a gradual recovery will ensue over 2024... 7th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs: Gulf a bright spot, Israel-Hamas war weighs on Egypt January’s batch of PMIs showed that activity across non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf eased a touch at the start of the year, but activity remains robust and will support the broader economic... 5th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt hikes interest rates as new IMF deal edges closer Events in Egypt yesterday, including a large interest rate hike and comments that a disbursement of more IMF funding is close, suggest that a shift towards more orthodox policy is nearing. If a new... 2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco’s plans, Jordan and regional conflict, Tunisia’s crisis Saudi Arabia’s government this week directed the state oil giant Aramco to suspend plans to raise oil production capacity, but this won’t necessarily stop Aramco from ramping up actual output in the... 1st February 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Flash GDP (Q4 2023) The flash estimate of Saudi Arabia’s GDP for Q4 of last year showed that the economy expanded by 0.4% q/q, the first positive outturn since the period a year before. We expect the recovery to continue... 31st January 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little... 30th January 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will Saudi shift tack on oil policy? Saudi Arabia has cut oil output significantly over the past year or so but that hasn’t prevented global oil prices from falling. Despite Aramco’s announcement today that it is postponing plans to... 30th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Geopolitics, shipping disruptions and supply chain risks 1707318000 Do maritime disruptions threaten a repeat of pandemic-era supply shocks? Should investors brace for an inflationary resurgence?
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt and the IMF, Red Sea disruptions and the Gulf IMF officials have been in Egypt this week to discuss a new financing package and, while no news has emerged yet, the accelerating depreciation of the pound on the parallel market underscores Egypt’s... 25th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Tunisia looking down the barrel of a sovereign default? Tunisia’s government faces a large debt repayment next month and, while it should be able to make that, there is still a lot of debt coming due in the next twelve months. President Saied’s... 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Could Saudi live with a sustained fall in oil prices? Saudi Arabia’s government returned to running budget deficits last year and is likely to continue doing so. But these should be easily financed. Oil prices would probably have to fall sharply, to... 23rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Will the last mile be the hardest? The easiest wins in the disinflation battle are behind us now that base effects from the previous surge in energy prices have run their course. Indeed, we expect energy effects to lift inflation in... 18th January 2024 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s crisis worsening, Saudi-BRICS membership The past week brought further evidence that strains in Egypt’s balance of payments are ratcheting up, underscoring the need to get the mooted enhanced IMF deal over the line. Elsewhere, the statement... 18th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Why hasn’t the Middle East sparked an oil price rally? Perhaps surprisingly, the latest escalation in Middle East tensions has not prompted a surge in oil prices. We think this is because, so far, oil output is unaffected. Moreover, we suspect it also... 16th January 2024 · 4 mins read
