Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of lower oil prices on the MENA region The recent sharp drop in oil prices is unlikely to be a major headache for the Gulf economies although, if sustained, it will mean that there will be less room for fiscal policy to provide the same... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update President al-Sisi’s first 100 days better than expected In his first 100 days in office, Egypt’s President al- Sisi has made more progress in tackling the country’s economic problems than many, including ourselves, had expected. In particular, his... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Recent EM currency falls partly a result of euro weakness There are good reasons to think that some EM currencies remain exposed to market turbulence as we move towards the first interest rate hike in the US. However, suggestions that the recent falls in EM... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Algeria’s economy on an unsustainable path Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s re-election in April seemed to mark a return to business as usual for the economy. However, Algeria’s growth model is looking increasingly unsustainable. If... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports pick up, but commodity producers lag behind EM export growth picked up in July, continuing the trend seen over the previous four months, and more timely data suggest that it strengthened further last month. However, there is a growing... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown continues at the start of Q3 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy slowed further at the start of Q3 as growth in the oil sector continued to ease, while activity in the non-oil sector remained weak by past standards. 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EM vulnerabilities: a stock-take A handful of EMs – mainly in Asia – have taken steps to reduce their external vulnerabilities in the wake of last year’s “Taper Tantrum”. But these countries are the exception rather than the rule... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Dubai now over its debt problems? The past month has brought further news that Dubai’s government-related entities, which were at the heart of the Emirate’s crisis in 2009, are tackling their debt problems. But while these latest... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Export-focused EM manufacturers are outperforming August’s PMI data from the emerging world were something of a mixed bag. But one theme that stands out is that most export-oriented manufacturing economies are performing relatively well at the moment... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economic recovery continues The pick-up in Egypt’s ‘whole economy’ PMI last month suggests that the economy has continued to make a gradual recovery from last summer’s “second revolution”. Meanwhile, non-oil sectors in the Gulf... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: interest rates on hold, further tightening unlikely The Egyptian central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold today appears to confirm that July’s rate hike was a one-off in response to higher inflation following the government’s recent... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Dubai's GREs slowly tackling their debt problems Over the past month Dubai’s government-related entities (GREs), which were at the heart of the Emirate’s crisis in 2009, have made further efforts to tackle their huge mountains of debt. The recovery... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latin America inflation woes deepen Although inflation at the aggregate EM level remains fairly benign, there are big differences between the main EM regions. Inflation is fairly low in most of Emerging Asia, but is high and rising in... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco: slump in agriculture doesn’t dampen positive outlook A slump in agricultural output has weighed heavily on Morocco’s economy since the start of this year. However, exports are now picking up on the back of stronger external demand while the boom in the... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth slows on weakness in oil sector Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the Saudi economy slowed to around 4.3% y/y in Q2 from 4.7% y/y in Q1. This was driven by weakness in the oil sector, but it looks like growth in the non-oil... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Asia pulls ahead Growth in the emerging world has remained stuck at around 4.5% y/y in recent months, but the aggregate number masks a recent divergence in regional performance. Growth has slowed in Latin America and... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
