Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Signs of improvement in smaller EMs Our GDP Tracker suggests that having sunk to a five-year low in August, EM growth edged up a little in September. The pick-up appears to have been driven by smaller EMs in Central Europe and Asia. In... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf set to resist pressure to cut oil output Comments ahead of today’s OPEC meeting, playing down calls for a cut in the cartel’s output target, suggest that the Gulf States aren’t too alarmed by the recent slide in oil prices. Indeed, Saudi... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Deflation concerns spread across the emerging world Following sharp falls in commodity prices, concerns have started to mount that parts of the emerging world are about to slip into a damaging period of deflation. Although we think that inflation is... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where could the next EM rate surprise come? Policymakers in several EMs – notably China – have surprised the markets with unexpected rate decisions over the past month or so. In this Update we identify the EM central banks that are most likely... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf equities take another tumble Low oil prices have continued to take their toll on equity markets in the Gulf. Meanwhile, pressure on the Egyptian pound has intensified over the past month and we think the authorities will need to... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM policymakers unlikely to follow China’s lead There is little reason to think that the decision by the People’s Bank of China to lower interest rates will trigger a spate of copycat responses from other EM central banks. China’s capital account... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran nuclear deal pushed back until June The extension of the talks between Western powers and Iran over its nuclear programme doesn’t come as a surprise. Nonetheless, lower oil prices should increase the pressure on Tehran to reach a deal... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM monetary policy takes divergent paths Monetary policy is heading in differing directions across the emerging world. Several economies in Central and Eastern Europe, Asia (notably China) and Latin America have lowered interest rates in... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will QE in Japan and the euro-zone affect EMs? The Bank of Japan’s decision to boost asset purchases just as the ECB edges towards QE has rekindled concerns about negative spillovers from developed world monetary policy to the emerging world. The... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s tourism sector finally on the mend Egypt’s tourism sector has turned the corner in recent months and, if this improvement can be sustained, we estimate that it might result in additional revenues of as much as $3.3bn (1.2% of GDP) over... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Lower commodity prices bring mixed news for EMs Recent falls in commodity prices have left some emerging market (EM) economies in a tailspin. The S&P GSCI, an index of commodity prices, has fallen by more than 20% since its June peak, largely due... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil sector a drag on Saudi economy in Q3 Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Saudi Arabia’s economy stabilised in Q3. The oil sector was a drag on the economy, but this was offset by stronger growth in the non-oil sector. Going forward... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will Saudi Arabia respond to the fall in oil prices? Saudi Arabia is likely to resist pressure from other OPEC members to cut oil output in an effort to arrest the recent slide in prices. After all, the Saudi economy is in a stronger position to... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Brighter times should lie ahead for EM equities The performance of equities has been lacklustre in emerging markets since the end of September and noticeably worse than in developed markets. As a result, the return so far this year from the MSCI... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf dollar pegs under little threat from lower oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices in recent months has led some to call into question the sustainability of the Gulf’s dollar pegs. However, we think the risk of currency devaluation is relatively small. 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) The fall in Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate in October suggests that, for now at least, price pressures in the economy are limited. 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
