EM Markets Chart Pack Are EM corporate bonds really that vulnerable? Since the end of October, emerging market dollar-denominated corporate bonds have performed much worse than comparably-rated US corporate bonds. This has been the result of increasing credit spreads... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies take plunge in oil prices in their stride The slump in oil prices has caused the Gulf’s equity markets to tumble, but the region’s governments still seem to be unfazed. Oman aside, no country has announced cuts in public spending. And Saudi... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The fall in Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate in November to a two-and-a-half year low probably marks the trough and we expect it to rise gradually to 3.0-3.5% over the coming year. 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Falling commodity prices douse the EM export recovery The recent modest recovery in EM exports stalled in October as global growth lost some momentum and sharp falls in commodity prices added to difficulties facing commodity exporters. More timely data... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks in the Gulf well placed to weather low oil prices The slump in oil prices has caused concerns to emerge about the exposure of financial institutions to energy companies, but for banks in the Gulf this risk seems small. They are more vulnerable to a... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) Egyptian inflation fell sharply last month on the back of easing food price pressures. If inflation remains in single digits over the coming months, it could prompt the Central Bank of Egypt to cut... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Differentiation key to navigating EM sell off The sharp falls in EM equities over the past day or so have rekindled fears of a crisis across the emerging world. While several EMs do look vulnerable to the effects of low oil prices and a stronger... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A soft start for Saudi Arabia’s economy in Q4 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy started Q4 on a slightly weaker note. We don’t think that the latest fall in oil prices will cause growth to collapse but with fiscal policy set to... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor External debt unlikely to spur widespread stress An increase in external debt has raised concerns that the emerging world faces a rough ride over the coming years as the dollar strengthens. However, our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI)... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will Fed hikes trigger another leg down for EM currencies? The US Fed is set to begin raising interest rates in the first half of next year, casting renewed uncertainty over the outlook for EM currencies. But big and necessary adjustments in many currencies... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The end of an era for globalisation and what it means for EM trade The period of sluggish EM export growth over the past few years is only partly linked to the weak state of global demand. Another key factor is that the wave of globalisation over the previous decade... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.) Last month’s drop in the whole economy PMIs for the Gulf economies appears to have been driven by weaker domestic demand. One explanation for this is that the continued slide in oil prices has weighed... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Smaller EM manufacturers leading the way The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world has improved in recent months, supported by a pick-up in some of the smaller EM economies. That being said, EM... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Turkish lira to remain overvalued despite fall in oil prices The latest estimates by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in October suggested that the Turkish lira remains one of the most “fundamentally” overvalued emerging market currencies that... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Fall in oil prices to wipe out Gulf’s current account surplus The recent fall in oil prices, if sustained, will effectively wipe out the Gulf’s current account surplus. This shouldn’t pose too many problems for these economies. Even if oil prices fall further... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are investors set to flee emerging market assets? October saw net outflows from global ETF and mutual funds that invest in emerging market (EM) assets for the first time since March. This was primarily driven by net outflows from funds that invest in... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
