Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q1 2015) Lower oil prices should provide a welcome boost to incomes, and hence consumption, in large parts of the emerging world. We are particularly upbeat about the outlook for consumers in China, India, the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of King Abdullah’s passing The passing away of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has raised concerns about the issue of succession and whether this might lead to disruptions to policymaking in the Kingdom. The key point, though, is... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update ECB QE and what it means for emerging markets The programme of asset purchases announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) earlier today was larger than had been expected only a few days ago, but fears that it could fuel destabilising inflows to... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Oiling the wheels Global growth has slowed in recent months, but we still expect world GDP to expand by just over 3% this year and next. The slump in oil prices should have a positive impact overall, even though it... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors’ enthusiasm for EM assets should return Investors’ retreat from emerging markets over the past month has reflected growing concerns about the implications of the collapse in the price of oil. Admittedly, most countries (and the world as a... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy won’t collapse but growth will soften in 2015-16 Concerns that the plunge in oil prices will push the Saudi economy into a deep recession this year look overdone. We expect growth to slow this year and next, but a collapse in output looks unlikely. 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4) The slowdown in Saudi GDP growth in Q4, to just 2.0% y/y, provides the first evidence that the plunge in oil prices has caused growth to soften. But so far, there are no signs of a collapse in output. 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound to fall further as central bank loosens its grip The small fall in the Egyptian pound in the past couple of days is significant given that the central bank had kept a tight grip on the currency since last summer and we think that the pound’s... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks shift to easing mode Having been in tightening mode at the end of 2014, a number of EM central banks have surprised markets by loosening monetary policy since the start of the year, with policymakers in Romania, India... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank becomes latest to cut interest rates In a surprise decision today, Egypt’s central bank (CBE) became the latest in the emerging world to cut interest rates. Although the slide in oil prices is unlikely to have much direct impact on... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Oil exporters feel the squeeze The value of EM exports fell in annual terms for the first time in almost a year in November as the slide in oil prices dragged on exports from energy producing EMs. The further slump in oil prices... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate fell to an eight-year low of 2.4% y/y in December. But we suspect that the big fall in inflation is now behind us and the headline rate may even edge up over the coming... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How and where we differ from the consensus In general our forecasts for both EM growth and inflation over 2015-16 are below consensus expectations and for the BRIC economies in particular we are notably more downbeat than the rest of the... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy ended last year on a weaker note Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the Saudi economy eased towards the end of last year, but there aren’t any signs that the plunge in oil prices has caused activity to collapse. Looking ahead... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for the Chinese renminbi? Since the end of November, the renminbi has depreciated slightly against the US dollar. However, the real effective exchange rate of China’s currency has continued to appreciate sharply, as the... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How the fall in oil prices will benefit North Africa We’ve written extensively in recent months about the losses the Gulf economies face in light of the plunge in oil prices. But in this Watch we explain why the North African economies of Egypt, Morocco... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
