EM Markets Chart Pack What’s behind the EMBI Global spread? The “stripped” spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global Index, which includes the dollar denominated debt of 61 emerging market governments, is still around 430bp despite falling slightly in recent weeks... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Split in EM export performance is widening The value of EM exports continued to fall in annual terms in December, with oil producers faring especially poorly. The early signs are that Asia's manufacturing-oriented economies will report weak... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia continued to ease at the start of this year and, against the backdrop of slower economic growth and weak commodity prices, we expect it to remain low over the next twelve... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs are most at risk from dollar strength? The US dollar’s recent strong run has raised concerns that EMs with large holdings of dollar-denominated debt will come under pressure. Indeed, India’s central bank governor, Raghuram Rajan, has gone... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.) Egyptian inflation fell back in January and looks set to ease further over the coming months. Further interest rate cuts are likely this year, but we suspect that the CBE will wait until the effects... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman to muddle through in 2015-16 but fiscal squeeze looming Oman is one of the few Gulf States that isn’t well placed to weather a period of low oil prices and, as a result, a fiscal squeeze will be needed. The authorities may be able to muddle through over... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Risks skewed towards unexpected rate cuts – for now… Today’s decision by the People’s Bank of China to lower reserve requirements underlines the current heightened risk of policy surprises in the EM world. We continue to think that any further surprise... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing weakness concentrated in the BRICs The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world was stable, but still sluggish, at the start of this year. However, while manufacturers in the BRIC economies are... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.) January’s whole economy PMI data suggest that, in spite of the drop in oil prices at the end of last year, activity in the Gulf economies has continued to hold up well. Meanwhile, the dip in Egypt’s... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor BRICs remain the EM weak spot Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP expanded at a modest pace of just over 4% y/y in November as the BRIC economies continued to disappoint. Meanwhile, the latest activity figures provide... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How exposed are EMs to contagion from Greece? The fact that the mounting concerns about Greece’s future within the euro-zone have had only a limited impact on financial markets across the emerging world appears to reflect the belief that problems... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will the surge in the EMBI+ spread be reversed? The “stripped” spread over US Treasuries of the JP Morgan EMBI+ Index of emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds has risen by a further 40bp over the past month to around 4.2%, well above... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fall in Egyptian pound has further to run We think the depreciation of the Egyptian pound over the past week has further to go and the currency might plausibly weaken to around 8.25/US$ by the end of this year, a 10% fall against the dollar... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What do lower oil prices mean for the emerging world? The collapse in global oil prices will provide a boost to most economies in the emerging world. However, it will come at the cost of weaker growth in the Middle East, and deep recessions in Russia and... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Divergence in EM inflation to widen further in 2015 Inflation has diverged significantly across the emerging world over the past few months. While some economies have slipped into deflation, in a number of countries consumer prices are rising at a... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s economy comes back into the spotlight After a prolonged period of exchange rate stability, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) loosened its grip on the pound this month, and the currency has since fallen by 3.5% against the US dollar. The CBE... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
