Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s Super Wednesday pulls it back from the brink

Egypt finally made the long-awaited shift back toward economic orthodoxy on Wednesday with the pound being devalued, interest rates hiked aggressively, and a new and enhanced IMF deal agreed. There...

7th March 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt’s orthodox policy shift back underway with IMF

The announcement of an agreement over a new IMF package for Egypt, coming on the back of the rate hike and devaluation earlier today, represents a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. While it is...

6th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: Will Egypt's reforms fix the economic crisis?

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The Egyptian central bank has announced steps to tackle its economic crisis, including a large devaluation and a bumper interest rate hike. But will it be enough?

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Interest Rate Hike & Devaluation

The announcement minutes ago from the Central Bank of Egypt that it has devalued the pound and hiked interest rates by a bumper 600bp, to 27.25%, shows that policymakers are committed to the turn back...

6th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Feb. 2024)

February’s batch of PMIs from the Middle East and North Africa continued to show that the Gulf’s private non-oil sectors have started 2024 on a strong footing. But Egypt’s economy appears to be...

5th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Morocco well placed to move towards floating dirham

Morocco’s improving balance of payments position and the sharp slowdown in inflation should provide the central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), with the confidence to take the next step toward a fully...

4th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Ras el Hekma deal, Qatar’s LNG expansion boost

The deal in which Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, ADQ, will invest $35bn in the Ras el-Hekma project will provide much needed foreign currency inflows for Egypt’s economy. But, even with this...

29th February 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt: Ras el Hekma deal paves the way for policy shift

The $35bn deal struck between Egypt’s government and the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, ADQ, will go some way towards alleviating acute balance of payments strains and pave the way for an enhanced...

27th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little...

26th February 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Tunisia’s unorthodox policy shift, Egypt’s Unified Budget Act

While Tunisia's government managed to avert default this week by meeting a Eurobond repayment, it only did so by draining already low FX reserves. With the new central bank governor set to take...

22nd February 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Unpacking this year’s EM bond issuance bonanza

EM sovereigns have issued a record amount of FX debt at the start of this year, capitalising on a window created by the decline in US Treasury yields since October. The issuance has been concentrated...

20th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Israel-Hamas spillovers weigh on non-Gulf economies

The main spillover to the global economy, so far, from the Israel-Hamas conflict has been major disruptions to shipping, but there has been a bigger and broader economic impact in the MENA region...

20th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Long Run Economic Outlook

AI productivity boom tempered by protectionist threat

The AI revolution should deliver substantial productivity gains in the coming decade, particularly in advanced economies. But with working age populations falling in key areas and China’s economy in...

20th February 2024 · 1 hr, 9 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi public finances and fiscal outlook, Egypt-IMF latest

Figures published this week confirmed that Saudi Arabia ran a budget deficit over 2023 and we expect another deficit this year. While the government shouldn’t struggle to finance this, if oil prices...

15th February 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan. 24)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged up from a two-year low of 1.5% y/y in December to 1.6% y/y in January, but we expect that inflation will ease again in the coming months and remain low...

15th February 2024 · 2 mins read