Emerging Markets Economics Update Window for policy loosening starting to close The wave of EM policy loosening that was triggered by the drop in oil prices at the end of last year is now reaching an end. However, it won't be until 2016 that most central banks move into... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update North Africa: 5-6% growth achievable, but reforms are crucial The outlook for the North African economies of Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia has brightened over the last twelve months and we expect growth to strengthen again this year. Further ahead, low income... 13th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of a potential nuclear deal with Iran There are many details that still need to be ironed out, but earlier this month Iran and the West moved another step closer to securing an agreement over Tehran’s nuclear programme. As we explain in... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rise in Egyptian inflation to 11.5% y/y last month was driven almost entirely by a rise in food and utility prices. As a result, we think it’s unlikely to have much impact on monetary policy... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A primer on EM dollar debts The recent strength of the dollar has thrust EM dollar debts into the spotlight, but data on the subject tend to be misunderstood. In this Update, we answer three questions that we have been asked by... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Iranian oil likely to come back to the market, just not yet The preliminary deal reached between Iran and the Western powers should, eventually, allow Iranian oil exports to return to their previous levels. However, some of the finer details still have to be... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.) The latest whole economy PMIs from the MENA region suggest that, in spite of lower oil prices, the Gulf economies are still holding up well. Meanwhile, activity in Egypt’s economy appears to have... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will Russia’s sovereign credit spread keep falling? Russia’s bond market continued to fare well in March. This may have reflected a growing sense that the risk of a financial crisis in the country has passed in the wake of emergency rate hikes late... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMIs point to further weakness The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world slowed further last month, driven mainly by weakness in some of the larger EM economies. By contrast, manufacturers in... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook In the footsteps of the Fed? The recent run of poor data from around the emerging world is likely to set the tone for the rest of this year. Brazil’s struggles look set to continue, Russia is likely to slip deeper into recession... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia simply taking a long-term view of the oil market Saudi Arabia’s lack of a response to the plunge in oil prices has triggered a torrent of conspiracy theories, including plots to hurt Russia and Iran. These have been given extra prominence in light... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Yemen crisis weighs on region’s equity markets The unfolding crisis in Yemen and the launch of air strikes by Saudi Arabia and its allies on the Houthi rebels has triggered a sell-off in equity markets across the MENA region over the past week or... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BRICs drive pick-up in EM inflation A pick-up in inflation in all four of BRIC economies pushed aggregate EM inflation to an eight-month high last month. However, the bigger picture remains that in most EMs inflation is both low and... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Fallout from Yemen The recent developments in Yemen have caused oil prices to jump on fears of disruption to supplies. However we think that the impact on production should be minimal and even in the unlikely event of... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on the escalating conflict in Yemen The unfolding crisis in Yemen and the commencement of air strikes by Saudi Arabia and its allies on the Houthi rebels has raised concerns of a broader regional conflict. We suspect that the worst of... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia refuses to budge Even though oil prices continue to languish at around $55pb, there is still no sign that Saudi Arabia will give in to pressure from other OPEC members to cut oil output. Oil Minister, Ali al-Naimi... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
