Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of the Saudi government reshuffle The reshuffle at the top of Saudi Arabia’s government probably has more political than economic implications. In particular, it means that any hopes for a swift end to the Yemen conflict have probably... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Equities in the Gulf rebound as Yemen fears ease While the crisis in Yemen has dragged on, stock markets in the Gulf have rebounded in the past month as fears that it could trigger a broader regional conflict have eased. 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt stands pat as inflation rises The decision by the Central Bank of Egypt to leave interest rates unchanged today was a close call, but it looks like the recent rise in inflation tipped the balance on the MPC away from lowering... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Return of Iranian oil unlikely to budge Saudi Arabia The recent deal between Iran and the West means that it is now very likely that substantial volumes of oil from Iran will return to the market. (We do note that although a final deal is not guaranteed... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Region’s politics take another twist The conflict in Yemen and an outline nuclear agreement between Iran and the West has thrust the region’s politics back into the spotlight. Although it looks like problems in Yemen are likely to drag... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth sinks as BRICs woes deepen EM growth appears to have sunk to a post-crisis low of around 4% y/y in the first quarter of this year, driven in large part by a deepening downturn in the BRICs. China has grabbed most of the... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the rally in emerging market equities continue? Since the end of Q1, the return from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has been impressive and eclipsed that from the MSCI World Index of developed market equities. Such outperformance has been a rare... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The implications of a fall in EM dollar GDP There is a good chance that emerging market GDP, measured in dollar terms, will fall this year. But while this will weigh on investors’ dollar-denominated returns and could raise debt burdens in EMs... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update “Accession bonus” leads to pick-up in Saudi consumer spending With inflation at an eight-year low and public sector workers receiving a bonus following King Salman’s recent accession to the throne, household spending in Saudi Arabia appears to have gathered... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s slowdown ripples across emerging world The effects of slower growth in China are already rippling across the emerging world. Indeed, while China’s economy is still growing by anywhere between 5–7% y/y depending on whose numbers you choose... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Ups and downs in the Middle East drive oil prices The biggest news in the energy market over the last month has undoubtedly been the rebound in oil prices, which came despite the announcement of a preliminary deal between Iran and the West. However... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy picks up, but unlikely to last for long Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy strengthened in February as the drag from the oil sector eased further and activity in the non-oil sector picked up. But this is likely to prove... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export performance remains dire Although EM exports contracted less sharply in February, the improvement was almost entirely down to a surge in China’s exports, which have been distorted by shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia eased further last month, to 2.0% y/y, driven in large part by a drop in housing rental price inflation. Against the backdrop of slower growth and weak commodity prices, we... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Lessons from history: is a debt problem brewing in EMs? We have been warning about the dangers stemming from rapid credit growth in several EMs for a while. In this Focus we revisit the possible lessons from history. Three points stand out – with... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria’s economy to hit a crunch point sooner rather than later Algeria is among the most vulnerable economies in the MENA region to lower oil prices and, while large FX savings mean it should be able to muddle through for the next few years, the economy will... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
