Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy strengthens as oil sector rebounds Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy strengthened further in March as the oil sector returned to growth and consumer spending remained buoyant. But we expect this rebound to fizzle out... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia held steady at 2.0% y/y in April as further weakness in food price pressures was offset by a pick-up in rental inflation. Looking ahead, we expect headline inflation to... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack How will EM corporate spreads react to higher US rates? Although underlying Treasury yields have risen since the end of March, dollar-denominated corporate bond yields have fallen in all emerging market regions, owing to a sharp fall in credit spreads. We... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia can afford to ride out a period of low oil prices We think concerns that Saudi Arabia is drawing down its savings to maintain spending in the face of lower oil prices misses the point that these buffers were built up precisely for a time like this... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update In search of winners from China’s rebalancing While it isn’t hard to find EMs that have been hurt by the slowdown in China, identifying winners from the positive aspects of its rebalancing – such as rapid growth in household spending – has proved... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q2 2015) The outlook for consumers has remained bright in large parts of the emerging world. In particular, consumption looks set to grow strongly in Central Europe and Emerging Asia over the coming months. In... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Why the Gulf’s dollar pegs are here to stay The sharp fall in oil prices since the middle of last year has thrust the Gulf’s dollar pegs under the spotlight but there are plenty of reasons to think that the risk of currency devaluation remains... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the rise in EM bond yields The sell-off in the bond market in developed economies that grabbed the headlines over the past few weeks has also hit emerging markets but, so far at least, it does not provide much cause for concern... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM slowdown – why this time is different According to our GDP Tracker, EM growth has now fallen to a low last seen in the aftermath of the 2008-09 global financial crisis and, prior to that, the 2001-02 Argentine crisis. However, the causes... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) Egyptian inflation fell back to 11.0% y/y in April but we think the central bank will wait for inflation to ease further before it cuts interest rates again. The effects of last year’s energy price... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar to remain a strong performer, but downside risks mounting Qatar was the MENA region’s best performing economy last year and, with low oil prices unlikely to derail the government’s investment programme, we expect it to grow at a decent clip of 5.0-5.5% in... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing weakens further as BRICs struggle Manufacturers across the emerging world appear to have continued to struggle in April, according to the latest PMI data. The slowdown was driven by weakness in the larger BRIC economies. Meanwhile... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Apr.) The latest whole economy PMIs from the MENA region suggest that the boost to Saudi Arabia’s economy from the recent “accession bonus” has already started to fade. The bigger picture, however, is that... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth sinks below 4% Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth has dropped below 4% y/y for the first time since the global financial crisis, and only the second time in almost 15 years. What’s more, with China’s slowdown... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt shifts attention back on to inflation Interest rate decisions by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) are notoriously difficult to predict but it seems that, having been distracted by balance of payments concerns over the past few years... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Steady core inflation indication of a structural EM slowdown Most of the recent slowdown in inflation across the emerging world has been the result of the weakness in food and fuel inflation. Meanwhile, core inflation is barely any lower than a couple of years... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
