Emerging Markets Economics Update Grexit, the euro-crisis and the risks for EMs Beyond a handful of economies in Emerging Europe, the direct links between Greece and the rest of the emerging world are limited. What matters for most EMs is not so much the crisis in Greece itself... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks building in China, Venezuela in crisis The relief rally in Chinese equities prompted by additional policy stimulus has turned global sentiment around, but a sustained recovery in commodity prices will probably require hard evidence that... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap European frontiers vulnerable to mounting threat of “Grexit” The growing threat of a Greek exit from the euro-zone has cast a shadow over the outlook for European frontier markets. Admittedly, the reaction in financial markets has so far been muted. And the... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Muted reaction as Saudi stock market opens up The formal opening up of Saudi Arabia’s stock market earlier this month was adamp squib, as equities remained flat. Elsewhere, stocks in Egypt have been the worst-performers over the past month, while... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Muted reaction as Saudi stock market opens up The formal opening up of Saudi Arabia’s stock market earlier this month was adamp squib, as equities remained flat. Elsewhere, stocks in Egypt have been the worst-performers over the past month, while... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A primer on how Saudi Arabia uses its FX reserves There seems to be a lot of confusion as to exactly how Saudi Arabia is using its foreign exchange reservesto finance twin budget and current account deficits. In this Update, we shed some light on the... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s government wavering on fiscal consolidation Egypt’s public finances are gradually improving, but the recent watering down of tax and spending measures combined with the relatively unambitious targets set out in a recent draft budget has raised... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs can weather Fed lift-off – problems could come later With a Fed rate hike sometime this year now widely anticipated, we suspect that any volatility in EM markets when the Fed finally raises rates should prove short-lived. The much bigger risk for... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Foreign investment into Egypt showing signs of a revival The slowdown in Egypt’s economy since the start of the year has been disappointing, but there are at least encouraging signs that the government’s reform programme is starting to bear fruit. Indeed... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Weak EM exports keep concerns over global demand alive Most of the weakness in emerging market exports in recent months can be pinned on the impact of lower commodity prices and the strength of the US dollar. But there are lingering concerns surrounding... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EMs: risks revisited Yesterday’s statement by US Fed officials suggests that the FOMC is still on course to raise interest rates at September’s meeting. EM financial markets have taken this in their stride today and... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth picks up, but rebound likely to fizzle out Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy grew by 5.0% y/y in April, supported by a rebound in oil production and robust growth in the non-oil sector. But activity is likely to soften in... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf countries weathering the storm, but growth to weaken The Gulf economies have weathered the storm created by low oil prices relatively well this year, with foreign exchange reserves having been drawn down to sustain spending. Large savings mean that this... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates as inflation remains high The Central Bank of Egypt left interest rates unchanged today, but we expect a rate cut later in the year, despite the recent pick-up in inflation. 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May) Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged up to 2.1% y/y in May, but price pressures are still subdued. Against the backdrop of slower growth and weak commodity prices, we expect this to remain the case for the... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for EM dollar-denominated sovereign bonds? Emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds have significantly underperformed their local currency counterparts since the end of April. However, this has generally been due to a surge in... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
