Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q3 2015) The falls in commodity prices over the past year have caused consumer spending to slow in many commodity-exporting countries, with Russia and Brazil being hit particularly hard. Only consumers in... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Another bad month for EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies suffered more heavy losses in the past month and while further big falls are hard to justify over a medium term horizon, there could be more downside in the near term... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jul.) Last month’s ‘whole economy’ PMIs provide early signs that activity in the Gulf strengthened at the start of Q3. Elsewhere, although Egypt’s PMI edged down in July, it still points to stronger growth... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still subdued, Central Europe a bright spot July’s PMIs, published earlier today, showed that manufacturers across much of the emerging world struggled last month. The one bright spot was Central Europe, where the surveys improved in spite of... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How big a deal is the new Suez Canal for Egypt? The new Suez Canal, due to be inaugurated this week, could in theory bring major economic benefits to the Egyptian economy. However, the government’s projections appear to be based on implausibly... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rate cuts likely to come onto the agenda The Egyptian central bank kept its benchmark O/N deposit rate unchanged at 8.75% late last night, but with inflation set to fall sharply, rate cuts are likely to come back onto the cards. We have... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dragged down by Russia and Brazil EM growth slowed to its weakest pace since 2009 in May. But the aggregate data have been pulled down by problems in Russia and Brazil. In contrast, other parts of the EM world have seen a pick-up in... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed won’t spark EM sell-off today, but data may add to volatility We do not expect any fireworks in EM financial markets after today’s FOMC statement, but with policymakers likely to reiterate that the timing of “lift-off” will be data dependent our upbeat view on... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf markets weather fall in oil prices Equity markets in the Gulf have performed better than might have been expected this month, given the fresh fall in global oil prices. Meanwhile, Egyptian stocks,bonds and the currency have all fared... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation set to rebound despite latest oil price fall The latest fall in global oil prices will not be enough to prevent a rise in EM inflation later this year. It is, however, another reason to think the rebound in inflation will be relatively benign... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update No need to fret about recent currency declines Most EM currencies have fallen over the past month, with many now at or close to multi-year lows against the US dollar. For the majority of countries the economic impact of recent currency weakness is... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier currencies suffer Frontier market currencies are having a difficult time, with only three of the 31 currencies that we follow gaining ground against the US dollar over the past month. The biggest decline has been in... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Renewed focus on Gulf’s fiscal positions The fresh fall in oil prices has turned attention back to fiscal positions in the Gulf, with the UAE’s government the latest to announce measures to rein in spending. The UAE plans to deregulate fuel... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s gas sector reaches a turning point This week’s announcement that Italian energy group Eni has discovered gas reserves in the Nile Delta provides the first concrete evidence that the Egyptian government’s energy reforms are starting to... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM rate cutting cycle nearing an end So far in July, more EM central banks have hiked interest rates than have cut rates – the first time this has happened since December last year. We expect to see further policy rate cuts in a few more... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growth in Saudi Arabia accelerates further on back of oil sector Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Saudi Arabia accelerated further, to around 5.5% y/y in May, supported by strong growth in the oil sector. But with Iranian oil likely to return to the market... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
