EM Markets Chart Pack EM equities the biggest casualty of Fed uncertainty Equity markets in the emerging world have been the biggest casualty of the uncertainty about when the Fed will finally push the button on rate hikes. For our part, we still expect “lift-off” later... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Talk of EM capital controls is overdone Despite concerns in some quarters, EM policymakers are unlikely to introduce capital controls. Many EMs are dependent on capital inflows – which capital controls would discourage – and many are likely... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM foreign currency debt to perform badly, but crisis unlikely We do not think that the downgrade of the Brazilian government’s foreign currency debt to “junk” status marks the beginning of a systemic emerging market (EM) sovereign debt crisis. But we do expect... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EMs and Fed tightening revisited The outcome of next week’s FOMC meeting is finely balanced, but it’s possible that it could deliver the first increase in US interest rates since 2006. In this Focus we revisit research we’ve... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Devaluation of Egyptian pound looking increasingly likely We have argued for some time that Egypt needs to devalue the pound and there are signs that policymakers are (belatedly) coming round to this view. We expect the currency to reach 8.25/US$ by the end... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt & Saudi Arabia CPI (Aug.) A further drop in Egyptian inflation in August to 7.9% y/y, its lowest rate in more than two years, means that an interest rate cut at this month’s MPC meeting is looking increasingly likely... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Balance of Payments (FY 2014/15) The whopping increase in Egypt’s current account deficit in the last fiscal year is likely to grab the headlines. But there is more to this than meets the eye. It largelyreflects an accounting issue... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2015) Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that total capital outflows from EMs increased in August to their highest level since the global financial crisis. This was overwhelmingly due to flows out of China. By... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How big a deal is the Zohr gas field for Egypt? The recent announcement by Italian energy group Eni that it has discovered a “super giant” gas field off the coast of Egypt has been billed as a game changer for the country. However, as we explain in... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How large is Saudi Arabia’s fiscal buffer? With oil prices still languishing at multi-year lows, Saudi Arabia’s budget position – which looks set to post a shortfall of close to 20% of GDP this year – has come under increasing scrutiny in... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth now not much faster than DM growth On some measures, the slowdown in emerging markets (EMs) in the second quarter of this year meansthat EM growth is now not much faster than developed market (DM) growth. 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.) August’s ‘whole economy’ PMIs suggest that the slump that the surveys had been pointing to in recent months has now reversed. Similarly, there is early evidence that Egypt’s economy may have turned... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Outlook for EM manufacturers deteriorates further August’s PMIs, published earlier today, paint a gloomy picture of the health of the emerging world.Conditions in manufacturing appear to have deteriorated further across a wide swath of EMs last month... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Five reasons why we’re upbeat on the outlook for Morocco After a difficult few years, the outlook for Morocco is finally brightening. We think the country could be one of the best performing economies in the emerging world over the coming years. 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency weakness to have mixed impact on EM inflation The recent bout of currency weakness is likely to add to inflation concerns in EMs that have either seen their currencies fall a long way or have limited spare capacity in their economies (mainly... 31st August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth lacklustre, but not collapsing EM growth edged down further in June. But for all the gloom in the headlines, we see no sign of the collapse some are talking about. In particular, in China, after a weak start to the year, conditions... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
