Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar. ‘24)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 35.7% y/y in February to 33.3% y/y in March despite the near 40% fall in the pound’s official exchange rate last month. That said, the effects of the...

8th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Consulate strike and the threat of a Iran-Israel war

The Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria this week has ratcheted up tensions in the region and the threat of an outright conflict between Iran and Israel is at its highest since the war in Gaza...

4th April 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia's non-oil economy to drive the recovery

After a very weak 2023, Saudi Arabia’s economy should see a modest recovery this year as the Kingdom’s non-oil economy sustains its strong momentum and more than offsets the drag from the extended oil...

3rd April 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Middle East & North Africa PMIs (March 2024)

March's batch of PMIs showed that the Gulf economies continued to outperform those elsewhere, and have enjoyed a strong start to 2024.

3rd April 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

PMIs show that EM industry continues to strengthen

The rise in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI to a three-year high in March was largely driven by strength in Asian industry, with activity elsewhere weaker. While slower growth in DMs should weigh...

2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

On course for a soft landing

In the quarters ahead, economic activity in most of the world will be characterised by soft landings. We expect GDP growth to be below trend, but meaningful recessions should be avoided and the US...

28th March 2024 · 45 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s path to faster growth, Houthis and Gulf oil output

Egypt’s recent policy shift has been met with a lot of optimism among investors and will likely see its new IMF deal approved by the Executive Board tomorrow. But the policies involve some near-term...

28th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

The past month has seen Egypt’s economic crisis turn around with the devaluation of the pound, aggressive interest rate hike, and unlocking of a new IMF deal. There have been false dawns before, but...

27th March 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

A soft 2024, but faster growth around the corner

Low oil output in the Gulf will constrain GDP growth over the first half of this year. But as this reverses, growth will pick up and by more than most expect. Elsewhere in Middle East and North Africa...

25th March 2024 · 20 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2024)

GDP growth will come in below consensus in most EMs this year, with the notable exceptions of India and Taiwan. Although stubborn wage growth means the pace of disinflation is likely to slow from here...

22nd March 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Flexible EGP on the rise, Morocco’s cautious central bank

The Egyptian pound has appreciated by 10% against the dollar in the past couple of weeks since its devaluation, providing hope that the CBE is finally following through with its commitment to a more...

21st March 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

EM financial risk – An early warning system

The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world. We have developed a comprehensive suite of indicators to identify early signs of a...

20th March 2024 · 17 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2024)

Capital inflows into EMs have picked up in recent weeks on the back of an improvement in risk appetite. This may set the tone for the rest of the year, particularly once the Fed begins to cut interest...

18th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The good and bad of Egypt’s policy shift, Aramco transfer

Last week’s policy moves in Egypt have raised concerns about a fresh surge in inflation, particularly after the jump recorded in the February CPI data. But while inflation may increase again in March...

14th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM growth divergence set to continue

We expect the divergence in growth prospects observed in EM Q4 GDP data to be a running theme over the next couple of quarters too. Specifically, we think that some of last year’s outperformers...

14th March 2024 · 3 mins read