Latin America Economics Update Latest rise in Brazilian inflation gives ammunition to Neves The latest rise in Brazilian inflation, which has pushed it further above the upper bound of the central bank’s target range, will give further ammunition to Aécio Neves ahead of his run-off against... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why slower growth is the "new normal" for emerging markets For all the recent talk of a “great moderation” in EM growth, the uncomfortable truth is that the big slowdown in the emerging world actually occurred several years ago. More recently, growth has in... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRIC economies the main drag on EM manufacturing September’s manufacturing PMI data suggest that the sector has lost some steam across the emerging world. The recent weakness has been largely concentrated in the BRIC economies, although there were... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuelan bonds in for a rough ride The Venezuelan government may have gathered enough foreign currency to meet its debt obligations this month, but with the economy crippled by a shortage of foreign currency and oil prices now falling... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch – heading to a second round No candidate looks set to secure a majority in the first round of voting in Brazil’s presidential election this Sunday, meaning that the race is all but certain to extend to a second round run-off... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Resignation of BCRA Governor opens door to more unorthodoxy The resignation of the Governor of the Argentine central bank (BCRA) opens the door for even more unorthodox economic policy. With no end in sight to the government’s debt dispute, and policymaking... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry under pressure, but Mexico is on the up The September manufacturing PMI for Brazil gives little hope that the economy snapped out of recession in the third quarter. Meanwhile, in Mexico, PMI surveys both at home and in the US continue to... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Investors face up to “new norm” for EM growth Investors have started to face up to the prospect that previous hopes of a significant rebound in EM growth are likely to be disappointed. But while the new normal for EM growth is going to be much... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is foreigners’ appetite waning? August was the fifth month in a row in which there were net inflows into global ETF and mutual funds that invest in emerging market assets. Admittedly, there was a small net outflow from funds that... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am markets suffer more than most in latest EM sell-off Markets in Latin America have been hit particularly hard in the latest EM sell-off. A combination of factors has been responsible, including falling commodity prices and a renewed focus on the likely... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor GDP Trackers suggest EM growth slowing once again Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth has slowed once again in recent months. The latest slowdown has been concentrated in Latin America and Emerging Europe, but there are some signs that growth has... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Emerging Markets Market Valuation Monitor Since the end of August, emerging market currencies have generally depreciated against the US dollar. The Brazilian real has been the worst performer among those that we track. Although the real... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Interest rates unlikely to rise much further Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday and we do not expect rates to rise in the near term. There may be one more 25bp increase to 4.75% next year if domestic demand remains... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth concerns come to the fore The past month has seen renewed concerns about the growth outlook for much of Latin America. GDP in the region grew by just 1.1% y/y in Q2 and the available data so far point to a similar pace of... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks linger in parts of the EM world As the Fed moves towards a first interest rate hike, the Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) shows that financial risks are at a decade low. As such, a systemic emerging market (EM) crisis seems... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil debt risks: private sector still poses the greatest threat Some commentators have argued that the deterioration in Brazil’s public finances in recent years has raised the risk of a fiscal crisis during the next presidential term, which runs from 2015 to 2019... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
