Commodities Weekly Prices to stay higher for longer We have raised most of our commodity price forecasts this week to account for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the heightened risk of disruption to commodity supply. Given that Russia is a leading... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities The latest Russia-Ukraine escalation and our forecasts The latest twist in the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to keep commodity prices elevated over the coming weeks and months. And if the situation spirals into a more serious and wide-ranging conflict... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitical twists & turns to continue to drive prices It was a rollercoaster week for many commodities as tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine ebbed and flowed and the West held talks with Iran over a new nuclear deal. In the end, it was... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities cannot continue to shrug off headwinds Growth in China’s economy has slowed sharply and US interest rate expectations have jumped but commodity prices continue to hold up well. In some cases, constrained supply explains the resilience in... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside risks to oil supply are intensifying OPEC+’s reluctance to consider a more radical adjustment in its output policy this week raises the risk that production falls short of the group’s target this year. Admittedly, the group agreed to a... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Hawkish Fed a headwind for commodity prices The US Fed announced at its meeting this week that it will “soon be appropriate” to raise interest rates and hinted that a hike was coming as soon as March. The US dollar strengthened, with the DXY... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Outlook Sky-high commodity prices on borrowed time Supply shortages have directly pushed up the prices of energy commodities and have indirectly raised prices of other commodities by boosting production costs. We think this will remain the case for at... 26th January 2022 · 23 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Omicron risks receding; energy still in short supply Two themes have dominated commodity markets at the turn of the year: the ongoing shortage of energy commodities and the global rise in cases of COVID-19. On the former, we think that shortages will... 7th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand fears giving way to supply concerns The experience of South Africa with the Omicron variant seems to have allayed investors’ fears over commodity demand. Indeed, the net long position held by investors in the oil futures market has... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly More hawkish central banks may put a lid on prices It was a week of central bank decisions, culminating in ‘Super-Thursday’. The big picture is that central banks generally sounded more concerned about the rise in inflation, despite the ongoing spread... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Renewed surge in Chinese demand still seems unlikely We are sceptical that commodity demand growth in China is about to reignite, despite this week’s cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR) for most banks and data showing surprisingly strong imports of... 10th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack The net effect of Omicron on commodities is not clear Most commodity prices have fallen in the last week or so following the identification of Omicron – a new, and potentially more transmissible, strain of COVID-19. However, while commentary has... 7th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities Weekly New COVID-19 variant could spark energy price falls Most commodity prices fell on Friday after South African scientists declared they had identified a new COVID-19 variant on Thursday which may be more transmissible. We think it’s still early days to... 26th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly The energy crisis rumbles on … This week showed that the energy crisis is not in the rear-view mirror just yet. Germany’s energy regulator suspended its certification process of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on Tuesday, owing to... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ unlikely to ride to the rescue anytime soon Despite falling short of its targeted increase in output once again in October, we think OPEC+ will continue to snub calls to raise output more rapidly. The week began with comments from the Biden... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices may have peaked Most commodity prices fell this week, adding to the sense that the recent rally is close to a peak (if it hasn’t peaked already). Either way, we think energy prices will be falling next year on weaker... 5th November 2021 · 6 mins read
