Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea on hold, for now The Bank of Korea (BoK) today unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold at 1.50% for its second straight meeting, and the accompanying statement and governor’s press conference suggest the central... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Import duty hikes unlikely to aid local manufacturing Recent hikes to import duties on various goods appear to be an attempt by Prime Minister Modi and the BJP to shore up popular support ahead of a clutch of state elections this year, and the general... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Underlying inflation has picked up again but we think this mostly reflects the lagged pass-through from previous exchange rate weakness. With producer prices of consumer goods now moderating... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes reiterate inflation and fiscal concerns The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) February policy meeting show that most MPC members are concerned about recent fiscal developments and the inflation outlook. Indeed, with core... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) While the manufacturing PMI weakened in February it remains near the highest it has been since 2014’s sales tax hike and consistent with strong gains in industrial output. Meanwhile, the survey... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q4) Thailand’s economy lost some momentum in Q4 but still expanded at the fastest pace since 2012 last year. We expect growth to remain robust over the coming quarters, supported by accommodative fiscal... 19th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jan.) Trade values were distorted in January by seasonal swings ahead of the Lunar New Year. The bigger picture is that external demand remains robust. 19th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) Headline wholesale price inflation eased in January, but stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation rose last month. With reasons to think that core... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: rates cuts not far off Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) left rates on hold today but, in contrast to the consensus, we think that rate cuts will come onto the agenda soon. 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to adjust policy The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today was no surprise given the backdrop of an improving economy but very weak price pressures. There was nothing in... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q4) Malaysia’s economy slowed in Q4 after expanding at its fastest pace in more than three years in Q3. We expect the economy to lose a little more steam over the coming quarters against a backdrop of... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q4 Revised) The revised estimate of Singapore’s Q4 GDP confirmed that the economy cooled at the end of 2017. Less supportive monetary conditions and fiscal policy suggest growth is likely to slow further over the... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Preliminary) GDP growth slowed sharply last quarter and we think that the economy won’t expand as strongly this year as it did in 2017. 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) The latest drop in consumer price inflation is largely seasonal and should reverse this month. The same cannot be said for the decline in producer price inflation, which points to a further easing in... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An oasis of record low interest rates If global equity markets are fearing higher interest rates, as this week’s fall suggest, then Australia and New Zealand offer something of an oasis as both the RBA and RBNZ dropped some heavy hints... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jan.) Trade growth at the start of 2018 beat expectations by a wide margin. But seasonal volatility means that we won’t get a clear reading on the pace of shipments in and out of China until next month. 8th February 2018 · 1 min read