UK Markets Chart Pack Pricing in higher inflation and interest rates The jump in 10-year gilt yields from 0.29% at the end of January to 0.76% now has been driven by the markets pricing in a rise in inflation after the pandemic that they think will eventually prompt... 24th March 2021 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack Core inflation to rise above 2% and stay there Base effects will temporarily drive headline and core CPI inflation up sharply over the coming months but, with underlying price pressures also starting to mount, we expect core CPI inflation to... 17th March 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack ECB holds the key for Swedish and Swiss yields The increases in Swiss, Swedish, and Norwegian government bond yields over the past month or so have illustrated the extent to which smaller bond markets get dragged around by global conditions. As... 11th March 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Unemployment rate may peak at only 6.0% The rapid rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, the reopening of schools and the staggered reopening of other sectors from mid-April should mean that the probable fall in GDP in January proves to be the low... 10th March 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Price pressures building Euro-zone inflation looks set to rise sharply in the coming months as energy inflation shoots up and core inflation edges higher. Indeed, the PMI surveys suggest that manufacturing input prices are... 4th March 2021 · 12 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Commodity price rally no panacea for Africa The recent rally across almost all commodity prices is good news for resource-rich economies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Balance sheets in oil producing countries like Nigeria and Angola will get a boost... 26th February 2021 · 13 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Populism rearing its head…again The tide is turning towards populist policymaking in Latin America once again. Most notably, Brazilian President Bolsonaro’s move to fire Petrobras’ CEO, Roberto Castello Branco, may be a prelude to... 25th February 2021 · 14 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Indonesia: current account shift reduces external risks Indonesia has seen a dramatic shift in its current account position over the past year, with recently published data showing that the country recorded its second consecutive quarterly surplus in the... 24th February 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Reasons for cautious optimism While the mood in EM financial markets has soured a little of late, from an economic standpoint, the past month has brought several positive developments. First, Q4 GDP data released so far have... 23rd February 2021 · 11 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Late to the vaccine recovery The second waves of COVID-19 currently ripping through Sub-Saharan Africa will keep economic activity depressed over the coming months and, even once vaccines belatedly reach the region, recoveries... 28th January 2021 · 22 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Further rate cuts likely despite rising inflation Headline inflation has crept higher in most countries across Emerging Asia over the past few months and looks set to rise sharply over the first half of this year due to a rebound in energy price... 27th January 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Vaccines won’t heal all scars While vaccines offer Latin America a route out of the crisis, lingering public debt issues will hold back the regional recovery and raise the risk of long-lasting economic scarring. As a result, after... 26th January 2021 · 26 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More weakness still to come for many EMs The roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines is getting underway across EMs, but in many cases progress has been slow-going. In the meantime, many countries are suffering from worsening outbreaks. New cases are... 22nd January 2021 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A look ahead to Latin America’s elections The pandemic has created fertile ground for populists to win presidential elections in Ecuador, Chile and Peru this year. That would have the biggest adverse market reaction in the former, and could... 7th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Chart Pack New outbreaks pose downside risks to 2021 forecasts Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand are all experiencing major new outbreaks of the virus, which pose a significant downside risk to our relatively upbeat GDP forecasts for these countries for... 22nd December 2020 · 14 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Lagging behind: second waves, vaccines & recoveries The latest national accounts data from Sub-Saharan Africa tell a story of the good, the bad and the ugly. South Africa’s economy mounted a surprisingly strong recovery in Q3, and a solid rebound in... 18th December 2020 · 12 mins read
