UK Markets Chart Pack Markets expect earlier rate hikes to quash inflation The combination of the Fed’s more hawkish tone and the larger-than-expected rise in UK CPI inflation in May to 2.1% has led the financial markets to bring forward their expectations of when the Bank... 23rd June 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation risks rising The risks to our forecast that CPI inflation will rise from 1.5% in April to a peak of 2.6% in November before dropping back in 2022 are increasingly on the upside. Rises in shipping costs and global... 10th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Falling inflation won’t stop Norges Bank rate hikes Rising global price pressures have pushed inflation up in Switzerland and Sweden this year, but their central banks look set to leave policy on hold. In contrast, inflation in Norway has been falling... 9th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Upside risks to inflation as the economy re-opens The jump in inflation to 3.4% in April was stronger than most forecasters expected and, with firms’ selling price expectations rising again in May, there seem to be further upside risks to inflation... 27th May 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Markets mistaken on when and how BoE will tighten Our forecasts that the Bank of England won’t tighten monetary policy until much later than the markets expect and that when it does it will unwind some QE first (perhaps in 2024) before raising... 24th May 2021 · 12 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Property slowly turning a corner The easing of restrictions is good news for the economy, but some commercial property sectors will be slower to benefit than others. Encouragingly, the property downturn was not as bad as we... 21st May 2021 · 25 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Housing boom to test the Riksbank’s dovish resolve The Riksbank will look through the recent pick-up in consumer price inflation in Sweden, which rose above the Bank’s 2% target in April for the first time since May 2019. After all, the energy-driven... 13th May 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Rapid and robust recovery underway We’ve been more optimistic than most about the economic outlook since it was announced in November that COVID-19 vaccines were effective. But now that the COVID-19 restrictions are being removed, it... 11th May 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Vaccination pace finally picks up After contracting again in the first quarter of this year, prospects for the second quarter have improved because the pace of vaccination has accelerated. At its recent pace, the euro-zone is on track... 6th May 2021 · 12 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Construction boom raises questions about supply The ratio of homes under construction to population growth is at a record high, reflecting both the strength of housing starts and the weakness of immigration. While the boom in construction might... 29th April 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Rapid economic recovery to support equities Our view that the economy’s recovery from the COVID-19 crisis will be faster and fuller than most expect is consistent with UK equity prices continuing to rise over the next couple of years... 22nd April 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone being left behind The slow vaccination programme has left the euro-zone well behind the US and UK incoming out of the health crisis. We think the economy will not expand at all in Q2 and GDP growth will be much weaker... 15th April 2021 · 35 mins read
UK Economics Rapid recovery to limit scarring While we think the reopening of the economy and the vaccine rollout will allow GDP to return to its pre-pandemic level a bit earlier than most forecasters, the big difference between us and the... 15th April 2021 · 26 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Rotation trade to resume and to drag the franc lower The partial unwinding in the reflation trade in recent weeks has stopped the decline in the Swiss franc in its tracks. Having depreciated against both the US dollar and the euro since the start of... 14th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Still waiting for a shot in the arm… The euro-zone economy is doing better than many expected given that much of the hospitality and travel sector is still closed due to virus-related restrictions. Indeed, the latest business surveys... 8th April 2021 · 12 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Booming housing market a challenge for the Bank The housing market has gathered more momentum in the past month and, if this continues, could prompt the Bank to tighten policy sooner than we anticipate. The Teranet measure of house price growth... 24th March 2021 · 9 mins read
