Asset Allocation Chart Pack Hunt for yield could continue to underpin risky assets The broad-based recovery in “risky” assets that got underway on 23rd March has run out of steam since 8th June. That is not because policy support has been dialled back. Instead, it appears to reflect... 5th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation in the next stage of the COVID crisis So long as the revival in the global economy continues, even if only gradually, we forecast that “risky” assets will resume their comfortable outperformance of “safe” ones. We do not buy the argument... 2nd July 2020 · 23 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Policy support likely to keep risky assets on top “Risky” assets have comfortably outperformed “safe” ones over the past month, even as evidence of the scale of the economic damage caused by the coronavirus outbreak has continued to mount. We suspect... 4th June 2020 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Outperformance of risky assets may not be over yet While the recent outperformance of “risky” assets has faltered in the past few days, we are sceptical of the idea that it has all been built on an overly-optimistic view of the economic outlook, for... 5th May 2020 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Portfolio allocation in a pandemic Although fiscal and monetary support has helped a bit, we doubt that “risky” assets will sustainably outperform “safe” ones again until the global spread of the coronavirus slows, which would raise... 3rd April 2020 · 23 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Will the fire selling of haven assets last? The surprising weakness of Treasuries alongside the collapse in US equity prices recently seems to have been driven by fire selling, not worries about inflation or debt. However, even if further falls... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Long-Term Outlook Don’t expect another roaring ‘20s, even after virus fears fade This is the first edition of our annual Long-Term Asset Allocation Outlook. It covers the outlook for asset returns over the next decade, and is designed to complement the standard Asset Allocation... 4th March 2020 · 20 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Virus fears not the only reason for caution We simply don’t know how far, or fast, the novel coronavirus outbreak will ultimately spread, so for the time being we are assuming that the response across asset classes will follow the same pattern... 29th January 2020 · 11 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Weak recovery likely to leave markets treading water After a stellar 2019 for most risky assets, we think that they will generally make only small gains in 2020. Admittedly, our forecasts assume that the effects of the coronavirus outbreak on markets... 27th January 2020 · 31 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook 2020-21 likely to be much less rewarding than 2019 We think that returns from “risky” assets – equities, corporate bonds, REITs and industrial commodities – will generally beat those from “safe” ones – government bonds and precious metals – again over... 13th December 2019 · 22 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM currencies likely to weaken; Chilean peso an exception Optimism about an imminent resolution to the trade war between the US and China and subsiding protests in Latin America have supported EM currencies over the past month. But, barring a few exceptions... 11th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Hopes of reflation may continue to fade We do not expect to see a resumption of the “reflationary” pattern that until recently had characterised markets over the past month. This is primarily because we think that the global economy will... 21st November 2019 · 11 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Equity rally unlikely to last, regardless of a trade deal EM equities have continued to rise over the past month, seemingly driven by optimism about an imminent US/China trade deal and some improvement in the economic data. But we are sceptical that the... 13th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Road ahead still looks bumpy for equities We have revised up our end-2019 forecasts for equities, which previously pointed to a large correction. But even without this big pothole, we continue to think that the road ahead for them will be... 31st October 2019 · 30 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Few assets likely to beat cash in the next few months We still think that returns from many “safe” assets, including most developed market government bonds, will fail to beat those from US dollar cash over the rest of 2019, even as “risky” assets... 18th October 2019 · 12 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Split Fed puts both bonds and equities on thin ice This is the first publication on our new Asset Allocation Service. The service considers the asset allocation implications of our comprehensive macroeconomic and financial market research, which is... 19th September 2019 · 25 mins read
