Bonds

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The latest key insight, in-depth analysis and thematic research collections

Bonds & Equities

This interactive dashboard presents all of our CE bond forecasts out to end-2027, as well as analysis of interest rate expectations and term premia.

Asset Allocation Chart Pack

Interactive Markets Chart Pack

We have updated our Interactive Markets Chart Pack with our views on the latest developments in global markets, and how we expect them to perform over the coming years. Note: This Chart Pack is...

1st July 2026 1 min read

Asset Allocation Outlook

The AI equity boom reaching its final innings

We think the AI rally is approaching its last stage, but is probably not quite over yet. Accordingly, we expect the tech-heavy equity markets, such as those in the US, Korea, and Taiwan, to continue...

25th June 2026 30 mins read

Bonds Focus

The retreat from sovereign bond duration

Supply/demand dynamics in long-dated sovereign debt markets are deteriorating, with demand from traditional sources waning and supply remaining strong. And now fiscal support in response to the Iran...

2nd April 2026 22 mins read

Global Economics Update

Private credit CLOs not a repeat of 2008 CDOs

The rapid growth of private credit CLOs has prompted comparisons with subprime CDOs in the lead-up to the global financial crisis. However, while there are some similarities, namely their opacity, the...

27th April 2026 6 mins read

Bonds Focus

Will Gilts remain the sick man of the bond market?

We think long-dated Gilt yields will fall over the next year, ensuring they no longer remain an outlier in the G7. That’s mainly because we expect inflation to fall sharply in 2026 and allow the Bank...

13th November 2025 21 mins read

Bonds Update

What long-run r* are investors pricing in?

While market pricing already looks consistent with our view that r* will rise to around 2% in the US over the coming decade, a deeper look suggests that there is still room for investors’ rate...

15th October 2025 4 mins read

Bonds Focus

Measuring Treasury term premia

Although estimates of the 10-year Treasury term premium vary, most approaches suggest that it currently sits at around its highest level in a decade or so. We expect it to remain elevated over the...

14th July 2025 9 mins read

European government bonds likely to outperform in the near term

Government bonds in several major markets face structural headwinds on account of fiscal profligacy, quantitative tightening, and reduced demand from key buyers such as pension funds. That said, current yields are broadly consistent with our estimates of long-term neutral rates and a reasonable term premium. What's more, we think monetary easing will support bond markets in Europe in the next couple of years, although the spreads of French and Italian government bonds relative to risk-free euro-zone rates will widen a bit as fiscal/political risks remain high. In the US, we think a hawkish Fed and a will keep long-term yields relatively high, and we expect JGB yields to rise further as the BoJ continues its gradual policy normalisation process.