Commodities Update China’s record oil imports not the whole story China’s commodity imports were relatively strong in November, perhaps reflecting some front-loading of regional spending on infrastructure. But our view that growth in China’s property sector is set... 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Nov.) Exports continued to languish last month and the pick-up in headline import growth reflects base effects rather than stronger domestic demand. Meanwhile, FX reserves data released over the weekend... 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Corporate balance sheets still under strain Corporate bond defaults have jumped recently and the loss-making share of industrial firms has risen to its highest in nearly a decade. This may not trigger an immediate crisis but it is a reminder... 6th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update DM stocks exposed to China likely to keep struggling Given our pessimistic view of China’s economy and the trade war, we think that the underperformance of developed market (DM) companies exposed to China will continue. Admittedly, the MSCI index that... 4th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Phase one trade deal would do little for global growth We doubt that recent developments in Hong Kong will prevent the US and China reaching a “phase one” trade deal in the coming weeks. But it would do little to boost global growth. And given the... 2nd December 2019 · 4 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Nov.) The survey data improved across the board last month, hinting at a pick-up in growth momentum. But we doubt this marks the start of a decisive rebound in activity. 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack December tariffs likely to be averted As things currently stand, the US is due to extend its punitive tariffs to cover nearly all goods imported from China in two weeks’ time. But the Trump administration has appeared keen to avoid that... 29th November 2019 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China rift, 2020 fiscal stance US President Donald Trump’s signing into law of the HK Human Rights and Democracy Act this week, after it received near-unanimous support in Congress, underlines the extent to which “standing up” to... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
China Activity Monitor Domestic headwinds sapping momentum Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy decelerated last month to its weakest pace of growth since May. Recent headwinds are domestic in origin, reflected in slower movements of... 26th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Oct.) Gold imports by China and India remained at historically low levels in October. Our view is that the gold price rally is now behind us, and that ongoing weakness in consumer demand will be one of the... 25th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Hong Kong bill, GDP revisions Trump will probably sign the HK Human Rights & Democracy Act into law during the next week or two. But he may delay its implementation in order to avoid derailing the trade talks. Meanwhile, new... 22nd November 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC cuts feed through to lower bank rates The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) reductions confirm that banks are lowering lending rates on new loans in response to the recent cuts to the PBOC’s lending facilities. And policymakers’ willingness to... 20th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Asian electronics and the coming EM export rebound The year-on-year rate of EM export growth should turn positive in the coming months, but this will mainly reflect favourable base effects from the Asian electronics cycle rather than stronger... 19th November 2019 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC nudges down its floor on interbank rates For the first time this easing cycle, the People’s Bank has cut the rate it charges banks for short-run liquidity. We expect further cuts in the coming months, which will open the door to lower... 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Trade deal won’t avert a further slowdown The US and China still appear to be making progress towards a trade deal. But a partial tariff rollback wouldn’t provide as much of a boost to exports as is often assumed. And any short-run... 15th November 2019 · 5 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Oct.) Activity and spending slowed across the board last month, more than reversing the uptick at the end of Q3. With further weakness on the horizon, we think additional policy stimulus is due before long. 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
