Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for the EM easing cycle? We expect that the broad-based EM easing cycle has further to run in the coming months but, as growth and inflation in many countries rise, it will be less widespread than in 2019. More importantly... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Further slowdown in 2020 with coronavirus a new threat Cooling property construction is likely to weigh on economic activity in the coming quarters. But with external demand starting to stabilise, the slowdown should be gradual, as long as the coronavirus... 23rd January 2020 · 27 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2019) We estimate that net capital outflows from Emerging Markets fell to a six-month low in December, and they probably declined further at the start of this year. With global growth close to bottoming out... 23rd January 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM growth to pick up despite China slowdown After a bad 2019, aggregate emerging market growth is likely to strengthen this year, driven by improvements in large EMs including Brazil, Russia and India. But recoveries will generally be... 22nd January 2020 · 24 mins read
China Economics Update Assessing the impact of the new flu virus in Asia Fears are growing about the spread of a newly-identified coronavirus across Asia. In this Update we discuss the likely implications for the region’s economies. 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Phase One, Wall Street and the renminbi The Phase One trade deal signed this week includes commitments by China to refrain from competitive devaluations and widen market access for US non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). We doubt the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.) Economic activity picked up last month, helping to avert a further slowdown last quarter. But despite the recent uptick in activity, we think it is premature to call the bottom of the current economic... 17th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s equities & currency likely to underwhelm Optimism about a Phase One deal has driven the rally in Chinese equities and the renminbi since late 2019. But now that the deal has been signed, this ought to be fully discounted in the markets. And... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Growth in outstanding broad credit was unchanged last month as a slowdown in bank lending and direct financing was offset by an easing contraction in shadow credit. With credit growth less responsive... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus The Phase One deal and its impact on China The trade deal between the US and China marks an end to the first phase of the trade war. China’s pledges on imports from the US are unlikely to be met but that may not matter to the deal’s long-term... 15th January 2020 · 11 mins read
US Economics Update Phase One deal reduces downside risks The Phase One trade agreement signed today removes the downside risk of a never-ending escalation of tariffs imposed by the US and China on each other’s imports, but the modest scale of the roll-back... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports end 2019 on a high China’s commodity imports were strong in December, and in 2019 as a whole, in part because a number of one-off structural factors boosted volumes. Looking ahead, we expect growth in commodity imports... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) Headline trade growth surged in December. But this is more a reflection of base and price effects than of current strength. And while the outlook for exports is improving, domestic demand will remain... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lower for longer: EM interest rates after the golden era This decade is likely to be marked by slower growth and softer inflation in emerging markets. One consequence is that interest rates will probably be lower than most currently anticipate. 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Inflation to drop back sharply, bond rally not over While the spike in oil prices following the killing of Iranian General Soleimani proved short-lived, oil prices still look set to rise this year on the back of a recovery in demand. But the impact of... 10th January 2020 · 7 mins read
