China Economics Update Coronavirus: Gauging the policy response Policymakers have loosened both monetary and fiscal policy in an effort to soften the economic blow from the coronavirus. Further easing is likely in the coming weeks. But if the virus peaks soon then... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the cost of the coronavirus on EMs The coronavirus outbreak will result in much weaker growth in China in Q1 and has hit tourism sectors elsewhere. If factory closures in China are prolonged, the epidemic could start to cause more... 4th February 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Coronavirus: What to watch in the coming days Data due in the next week or so should give a better sense of how badly economic activity has been hit by the outbreak. And given the incubation period of the virus, the effectiveness of the... 4th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Solid January PMIs yet to capture coronavirus hit The January batch of EM manufacturing PMIs generally held up well, but the surveys are yet to capture the economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak. Extended factory closures in China are likely... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How important is Chinese tourism? Chinese international tourist spending has surged over the past decade, which is one reason to think that the economic spillovers will be greater for the coronavirus than they were for SARS. But... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy continued to contract last quarter and the Coronavirus outbreak will probably keep the city in recession for a while longer. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC steps up rate cuts in response to Coronavirus The People’s Bank has lowered the rates it charges banks for short-run liquidity. Given the mounting toll of the Coronavirus outbreak, we expect more cuts in the coming months. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) While the Caixin manufacturing PMI edged down last month, the survey was conducted too early to tell us much about the extent of the economic damage from the Coronavirus outbreak. The February survey... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly A dreadful month The new coronavirus was first identified exactly a month ago. Initially, it was compared to SARS as a benchmark for how bad the outbreak could be. SARS now looks like a best-case scenario. We have... 31st January 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Coronavirus to hit EM growth Our Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP growth stabilised in Q4, but it will no doubt weaken sharply in Q1. The coronavirus has already dealt a significant blow to China’s economy, and other EMs... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jan.) The official PMIs show that manufacturing activity weakened, and non-manufacturing strengthened, in the lead-up to the Coronavirus outbreak. The following months’ PMIs will give insight into how... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Coronavirus toll mounting The number of deaths inside China attributed to the new coronavirus is now on course to exceed those from SARS by early next week. The measures taken by the government and the public to limit... 30th January 2020 · 11 mins read
China Activity Monitor Monitoring for contagion Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) estimate for China’s rate of growth in December is somewhat academic at this point but, for what it’s worth, it showed the economy holding up well. Measures to constrain... 28th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack China’s coronavirus and the fallout for EMs There is no longer any doubt that China’s newly-identified coronavirus will hit its GDP growth in Q1. And other parts of Asia (notably Hong Kong and Thailand) will suffer a drop in Chinese tourism... 27th January 2020 · 9 mins read
China Economics Update Virus outbreak increasingly resembling SARS Even if the coronavirus outbreak is brought under control quicker than SARS was in 2003, the economic impact now looks likely to be of at least a similar scale. We estimate that SARS lowered China’s... 27th January 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Rapid spread of coronavirus adds to downside risks There is no longer any doubt that the coronavirus outbreak will hurt China’s economy in Q1. While the impact should be short-lived and subsequently reversed, the public and official responses to the... 24th January 2020 · 5 mins read
