China Economics Update Rate cut still leaves many firms vulnerable Commercial banks cut the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) today in response to moves by the People's Bank earlier in the month to lower their funding costs. While more easing is likely in the coming weeks, this... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Virus disruption starting to weigh on employment The vast majority of firms in China have enough funds to keep paying their creditors and employees for at least a couple of months amid the disruptions caused by the coronavirus outbreak. But a... 19th February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC cuts rates again, with more easing to come The People’s Bank (PBOC) has taken yet another step to help banks and borrowers weather the economic disruption from the coronavirus outbreak. But more easing will probably be needed. 17th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Economy still on hold three weeks after Lunar NY Two weeks after China was originally due to return to work after the Lunar New Year holiday, economic activity remains extremely subdued. There are some signs that popular concerns about the outbreak... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Supply cutbacks in China look increasingly likely Measures to contain the spread of coronavirus in China have already dealt a heavy blow to metals demand. But the longer China’s economy remains part-suspended, the greater the chance that supply is... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update What to make of the jump in COVID-19 cases A jump in reported cases and deaths appears to reflect the official figures getting a better grip on the true extent of past infections, rather than indicate a recent acceleration in the spread of the... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The coronavirus and the emerging world The impact of the coronavirus means aggregate EM GDP is likely to have contracted in q/q terms for the first time since the global financial crisis in Q1. If the outbreak is contained quickly, most... 12th February 2020 · 17 mins read
China Economics Focus The economic impact of the new coronavirus in China China’s economy is likely to contract sharply in the first quarter, as a result of the measures that have been taken to limit the spread of the new coronavirus. The apparent slowdown in new infections... 12th February 2020 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central bank responses to the coronavirus fallout The economic disruption from the coronavirus outbreak will lead to further rate cuts in much of Emerging Asia. And in those countries where currencies have fallen sharply, the moves have not been big... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update China’s December gold imports a flash in the pan Chinese imports of gold surged in December, while India’s foreign purchases remained in the doldrums. Looking ahead, we expect high local-currency prices in India coupled with a slowdown in Chinese... 11th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Coronavirus disruptions set to drag on Efforts to contain the virus are becoming less draconian but with many factories struggling to re-open and households not spending, it will be a while before the drag on growth fades. 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Epidemic not the only cloud over Chinese markets While Chinese equities and bond yields might return to their levels of early-January if the coronavirus epidemic is contained, our bearish view of China’s economy suggests to us that they and the... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Seasonal volatility and coronavirus disruptions pushed up consumer prices in January. But the PBOC is likely to look through this temporary rise in inflation when setting policy. 10th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Coronavirus spread, tariff rollbacks The next few days will be crucial in determining whether efforts to limit the spread of the coronavirus within China have worked and whether workplaces across the country will be allowed to reopen... 7th February 2020 · 6 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jan.) The PBOC doesn’t appear to have deployed its FX reserves last month to limit renminbi depreciation triggered by the coronavirus outbreak. But there are signs that it has intervened in other ways. 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Coronavirus: the financial risks for EMs The coronavirus outbreak could expose financial vulnerabilities in China and other EMs if factory and other workplace closures are extended. Within China, property developers are particularly... 6th February 2020 · 6 mins read
