China Data Response Trade (Jan. & Feb.) Exports dropped the most since 2008 at the start of this year. Imports held up better but at the expense of a jump in inventories. Inbound shipments will soon play catch-up with the slump in domestic... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Bond yields at decade lows, RMB defies growth slump China’s economy is on a slow march back to normality. In coming days, the trade, credit and inflation data will shine new light on the disruption of recent weeks. In financial markets, rising... 6th March 2020 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update Policy stimulus: How much and will it work? China is easing monetary policy and lining up fiscal stimulus measures worth at least 2% of GDP. The impact will be muted as long as the workforce is still facing major disruption. But these measures... 5th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Focus China slowdown key to commodity prices in the 2020s The structural economic slowdown which we expect in China over the coming decade will weigh heavily on consumption of industrial commodities and their prices. Steel will be by far the most affected... 3rd March 2020 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Coronavirus: the long-term impact on supply chains The coronavirus itself may not trigger a wholesale reorganisation of supply chains, but it strengthens the argument for companies to reduce associated risks. One response might be to introduce more... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Feb.) The latest PMI readings were in line with our downbeat expectations but will come as a shock to most analysts, who had anticipated a much smaller hit to business activity from the coronavirus outbreak... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Coronavirus: five points on the hit to EM activity so far This Activity Monitor outlines five key points on the coronavirus fallout for EMs, including what we can say about the impact so far. At the very least, it looks like the virus will cause aggregate EM... 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Most factories now open but production still subdued Chinese factories were slow to reopen even after the extended Lunar New Year holiday came to end. One week after most of the country officially went back to work on 10th February, more than half of... 28th February 2020 · 12 mins read
China Economics Weekly Global virus spread adds to downside risks for China The extended disruption from efforts to contain COVID-19 means that China’s economy is already in the midst of the deepest contraction in at least two decades. And the potential hit to foreign demand... 28th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers among most exposed to coronavirus fallout The economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak is likely to be particularly severe for a number of frontier markets. Due to its deep integration into global supply chains, Vietnam’s economy will... 27th February 2020 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update Extended shutdown deepening economic contraction With normal activity taking longer to recover than seemed likely earlier this month, we now think that China’s economy will contract outright in year-on-year terms this quarter, for the first time... 26th February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong stimulus package a good painkiller The 2020-2021 budget that the Hong Kong government announced earlier today is large in scale and should help offset the damage that the coronavirus outbreak is having on companies and consumers. But... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How much will recent currency falls raise inflation? We estimate that the coronavirus-related sell-off in EM currencies will push up inflation over the next year by 0.6-0.7%-pts in Russia, Turkey and South Africa, reinforcing our view that easing cycles... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Coronavirus starting to hit EM trade There are early signs that the economic disruption resulting from China’s measures to contain the coronavirus is hitting supply chains and trade in Emerging Asia. There is also some tentative evidence... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Evidence of Q1 contraction continues to mount New data this week on electricity usage in one of China’s largest provinces suggest that activity in the construction, wholesale and retail, and industrial sectors has been running at half the usual... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Strong government bond issuance left growth in outstanding broad credit unchanged last month, though weaker corporate borrowing suggests that the uncertainty caused by the coronavirus was starting to... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
