Industrial Metals Update Even after this week’s sell-off, the worst is yet to pass Over the last month, industrial metals prices had been holding up on hopes that China’s economy was edging closer to a post-virus recovery. But that all changed this week. With what were once downside... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials still in denial over growth, scale of stimulus China’s government will only lower its 2020 GDP target marginally, to around 5% according to media reports. Given the sharp contraction in output this quarter, this would require implausibly strong... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged but monetary conditions still easing Commercial banks unexpectedly did not lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) today. Despite this, monetary conditions are still easing as the People’s Bank (PBOC) has been using a broad set of instruments to... 20th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs and the impact of containment measures The proliferation of measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus as well as shifts in consumer behaviour will have a severe effect on retail, accommodation, recreation and transport sectors across... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs would struggle to contain an outbreak? Extremely dense populations in urban areas, poor healthcare provision, and limited ability to impose quarantine measures mean that countries in South and South-East Asia, as well as Egypt and Nigeria... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Output down by a fifth in Q1 The latest data point to a 20% q/q contraction in GDP this quarter (-16% y/y), even on the official figures. Given the shock to incomes and employment, the continued concern about the threat of... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions: Alarm bells starting to ring The broad-based tightening in EM financial conditions in recent days has been similar in scale to the onset of the global financial crisis. Conditions are now particularly restrictive outside of the... 16th March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.) The latest activity and spending data were much weaker than expected and point to a far deeper downturn than during the Global Financial Crisis. While domestic conditions should improve slowly in the... 16th March 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC loosens further as newly-reported cases stall The People’s Bank has taken another step to push down borrowing costs. China’s economy is still operating far below its normal capacity but, with only eight new infections reported nationally in the... 13th March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC mulling deposit rate cut to shore up banks Recent monetary easing has squeezed bank margins, causing concern among policymakers. The People’s Bank has hinted that, in order to take some pressure off the banks and give them room to lower... 13th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Can the virus be contained with little economic pain? Some countries have managed to control the new coronavirus without large-scale quarantines or economic shutdowns. But they have achieved this by preventing the virus from spreading within the... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM external vulnerabilities largest? If the recent tightening of external financing conditions is sustained, it would result in severe balance of payments strains for the usual suspects (Turkey and Argentina) as well as some of the... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Credit growth was stable last month despite the slump in economic activity. In most countries, credit growth would slow sharply in response to a shock such as the coronavirus, as households defer... 11th March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Lower oil prices offer small comfort amid downturn As the world’s largest oil importer, China stands to gain from the recent fall in oil prices. But the boost to growth will be modest and won’t make up for the hit to Chinese exports from weaker global... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) The coronavirus outbreak is putting downward pressure on inflation. While supply chain disruptions have kept food prices high, weaker demand has weighed on the price of other goods and services. 10th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Worst is yet to come for China’s commodity imports China’s commodity exports collapsed in the first two months of 2020. In contrast, commodity imports held up relatively well, but this probably reflects the greater logistical challenge faced by... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
