China Economics Weekly SMEs, developers & exporters sitting out the recovery The first monthly data points for March add to broader evidence that activity began to bounce back last month. But the recovery already appears to be losing momentum and has been unevenly spread, with... 3rd April 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update What China tells us about the likely shape of recovery The economic recovery underway in China gives some useful pointers to what lies ahead for the rest of the world. An initial increase in activity can happen rapidly once lockdown measures are eased... 2nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What China tells us about the likely shape of recovery The economic recovery underway in China gives some useful pointers to what lies ahead for the rest of the world. An initial increase in activity can happen rapidly once lockdown measures are eased... 2nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI masks weakening conditions The rebound in the EM manufacturing PMI in March offers little comfort as the survey masks the true weakness of industry. What’s more, the services sector may fare worse during this downturn. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of EM central bank bonds purchases EM central banks have acted swiftly in response to the coronavirus crisis, including adding bond purchases to their toolkit. These are aimed primarily at reducing credit spreads and stabilising the... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update A bit of caution on China’s March PMIs Although China’s official and unofficial PMIs improved in March, the underlying picture is that the economy remains weak and is unlikely to offer much support to commodity prices. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI strengthened last month from February’s abysmal levels and suggests that the contraction in activity has already bottomed out. But weak foreign demand and labour market... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Would capital controls work in EMs? In the face of rapid capital outflows, EMs may turn to capital controls to stabilise balance of payments positions. Such measures might help to stave off crises in some countries (particularly if they... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Mar.) The latest survey data add to broader evidence that activity has started to rebound but suggest that weak foreign demand and labour market strains remain headwinds. 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM financial vulnerabilities greatest? The impact of global measures to contain the coronavirus will result in a steep fall in EM GDP this year. And the collapse in output, spike in capital outflows and plunge in commodity prices could... 30th March 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC moves to keep interbank rates low The People’s Bank (PBOC) has taken another step to loosen monetary conditions by lowering the rate at which it lends to banks. But the central bank’s job isn’t done yet and we anticipate continued... 30th March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Opening up, shutting down, infection data doubts China has been relaxing some of its last controls on domestic movement this week while also pulling down the shutters on arrivals from abroad. That highlights how the epicentre of the coronavirus... 27th March 2020 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack Labour market conditions continue to worsen Activity across both industry and services is recovering as measures to contain the coronavirus have been eased. But the recovery is likely to run into the constraint of weak demand before long. The... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM capital flows: bank flows are the big risk The dislocation in global financial markets has led to large capital outflows from EM debt and equity markets, which has caused financial conditions to tighten. And the economic effects could be much... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Supply constraints easing, demand remaining weak On current trends the extreme shock to China’s economic output caused by official closing of workplaces and limits on movement will mostly have ended by mid-April. But firm closures and job losses... 24th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we about to see a wave of sovereign defaults? A record number of sovereign dollar bonds are now trading at distressed levels, although these are mostly those of smaller EM governments. Among the most highly distressed sovereigns, Zambia and... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
