China Economics Update Targeted Medium-term Lending Facility Rate The People’s Bank (PBOC) has cut rates on yet another one of its lending facilities, but the move is more housekeeping than a shift in policy stance. 24th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The oil market rout, devaluations and defaults Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries should be able to weather the collapse in oil prices without abandoning dollar pegs, and Russia will still run looser fiscal policy this year than last. But... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor While emerging markets suffered large net portfolio investment outflows in March, the very latest data suggest that the pace of outflows eased in the first half of April. Meanwhile, it appears that... 21st April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Hospitality, retail & construction were worst hit in Q1 The detailed breakdown of China’s Q1 GDP data that was published over the weekend shouldn’t be taken completely at face value. But it still provides a useful framework for gauging the relative... 20th April 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Banks pass on PBOC rate cut Commercial banks lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) today in response to last week’s policy rate cut. With economic conditions still weak, we expect further rate declines in the coming months. 20th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debt moratorium, IMF SLL small steps in right direction The agreement by the G20 to allow the world’s poorest nations to suspend bilateral debt servicing will help to ease short-term balance of payments strains in much of Africa, most notably Angola, but... 17th April 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Downturn pushing China towards zero lower bound The decline in China’s Q1 GDP made history but was not a big surprise. The pace of contraction looks set to ease this quarter but with external headwinds intensifying and the labour market in a... 17th April 2020 · 5 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.) GDP contracted in Q1 for the first time since China began publishing quarterly data in 1992, though we suspect that the slump in output was even deeper than officials claim. The monthly data suggest... 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lockdowns may not be effective in all EMs Lockdowns have proved successful at limiting the spread of coronavirus in the likes of China, Korea and the Czech Republic, but they are likely to be less effective in poorer countries – notably much... 15th April 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Past the worst but recovery to underwhelm After the deepest downturn since the Cultural Revolution in Q1, China’s economy will return to growth this quarter. But with labour market strains holding back domestic demand and external headwinds... 15th April 2020 · 17 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC ramps up easing but more still to come The People’s Bank (PBOC) has taken yet another step to help banks and borrowers weather the ongoing economic weakness and is preparing to lower interest rates further in the coming months. 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity trade not out of the woods yet After collapsing in January and February, China’s commodity exports stabilised last month. But with economic activity outside China now in the doldrums, this is unlikely to last. Meanwhile, China’s... 14th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) Shipments picked up last month as factories re-opened and domestic demand began to recover. But with economic activity in the rest of the world now collapsing, the worst is still to come for China’s... 14th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: where do the risks lie? Non-performing loans are likely to climb in many EMs as output and incomes collapse, potentially forcing policymakers in some countries to step in and recapitalise banks. The risks are greatest in... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Expect the first negative GDP print in over 40 years China’s release next week of data for Q1 GDP will be perhaps the most remarkable of modern history. The statistics office often stands accused of smoothing fluctuations in GDP but we think it is... 9th April 2020 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The coronavirus crisis & EM public debt We think that most EM governments will increase the size of their fiscal support packages, which will cause public debt ratios to jump. For many of the poorest EMs, this will be supported by... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
