China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Consumer and producer price inflation fell sharply last month, reflecting the continued weakness in demand. Price pressures are likely to ease further in the coming months, strengthening the case for... 12th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Interpret incoming GDP & CPI data with a pinch of salt With the incoming economic data likely to be less reliable than usual, we think that investors should focus more on the timely low-level activity data and the changing shape of infection curves to... 11th May 2020 · 7 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) Credit growth accelerated further last month, a trend that will probably continue given signals from the PBOC’s Q1 monetary report published over the weekend that more stimulus measures are in the... 11th May 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending, trade talks, renminbi In a sign that consumption is still being held back by concerns over the virus and households’ finances, domestic tourism spending during the Labour Day holiday was down 60% y/y despite the fact that... 8th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports look set to fall China’s commodity imports have held up well so far this year, but weak external orders and subdued domestic demand point to lower volumes in the months to come. 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Apr.) China’s exports were much stronger than anticipated in April but are likely to drop back sharply this month. In contrast, the recent resilience of imports faltered in April as inbound shipments began... 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs confirm manufacturing meltdown The drop in the EM manufacturing PMI to 42.7 in April confirms that industry is collapsing in Q2. Even though industry will bounce back in the EMs starting to ease lockdown measures, the weakness of... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The lowdown on EM lockdowns In those EMs that were quick to control their coronavirus outbreaks (South Africa, Poland, Vietnam), lockdowns are being eased which will allow activity to gradually recover. But the damage from... 4th May 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials turn to infrastructure amid slow recovery The early data for April suggest that the post-COVID-19 recovery remains slow and uneven. Policymakers are stepping up fiscal stimulus in response, which looks set to drive a sharp pick-up in... 30th April 2020 · 6 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Apr.) The latest survey data shows that renewed weakness in the manufacturing sector was offset by a pick-up in construction and services, leaving the overall pace of recovery broadly unchanged in April. 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Many EMs still have a lot of work to do The good news is that a handful of the early responders to Covid-19, including Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Czech Republic, have successfully flattened their infection curves. As life starts to get... 29th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Long-lasting economic damage We estimate that aggregate EM GDP will shrink by 4% this year, by far the worst outturn since reliable records began in 1960. The recovery will be fitful, with output at an aggregate level likely to... 28th April 2020 · 26 mins read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Mar.) Imports of gold into China and India continued to contract at a double-digit pace in March. But the plunge in physical demand has had little impact on the gold price, as it has been outweighed by... 27th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Industrial restart feeding inventories Output from China’s industrial sector rebounded in March, as the government encouraged firms to re-open. But revenues remained much weaker, signalling that demand remained depressed. Inventories... 27th April 2020 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly True unemployment at least double official figure The leadership has elevated “ensuring employment” to the top of its list of priorities. Unemployment is still low officially but the true rate is probably double the official figure. 24th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs would suffer from a drop in remittances? Remittances held up well during the Global Financial Crisis but the scale (and type) of job losses in the current crisis mean that they are likely to fall sharply in the coming months. A drop in... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
