China Economics Update Plenum Decision fleshes out existing reform agenda The complete Third Plenum “Decision” document provides interesting details on the leadership’s reform agenda across a range of areas. Overall though, it reinforces the central message in last week’s... 22nd July 2024 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Update China green exports hit a new record high Increases in solar panel and battery exports propelled our proprietary measure of China’s green export volumes to a record high in June. Given the rapid expansion in Chinese manufacturing capacity... 22nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Policy Rates (Jul. 2024) The PBOC has lowered its short-term policy rate for the first time since last summer, in line with our expectation for a cut this quarter. Its efforts to prevent long-term yields from falling... 22nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Services-led slowdown, Third Plenum signals The detailed breakdown of Q2’s weaker-than-expected GDP figures point to a broad-based slowdown in almost all parts of the service sector, leaving growth increasingly dependent on industry. The Third... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update The Third Plenum and China’s bond rally China’s bond market seems to be caught between the country’s slowing economy and the PBOC’s desire to push long-end yields higher. The announcements from the Third Plenum this week probably won’t help... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Event China Drop-In: Does the Third Plenum signal a big reform push is coming? 1721635200 The Chinese Communist Party’s Third Plenum ended with a much-anticipated pledge to continue “comprehensively deepening reform”.
China Economics Update Third Plenum fails to resolve policy tensions China’s leadership has promised to continue comprehensively deepening reform in a wide range of areas. But there are few signs that the just concluded Third Plenum marks a major change in the... 18th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Gold jewellery to lose its lustre under high prices Gold jewellery demand has been highly sensitive to price changes in the past and so will come under pressure from the current backdrop of record high gold prices. Income growth in key markets will... 17th July 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q2) & Activity (Jun. 2024) Weaker-than-expected official GDP figures show that China’s economy lost momentum in Q2. But we doubt this marks the beginning of a renewed downturn just yet – a step up in fiscal stimulus and... 15th July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC narrows rate corridor, overcapacity worsens The PBOC’s expanded open market operations effectively narrow the interest rate corridor for short-term interbank rates. This won’t have any immediate consequences for monetary conditions. But it does... 12th July 2024 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) Both bank loan and broad credit growth hit a record low in June. While further fiscal loosening may provide some support to credit growth in the near-term, the continued weakness of the property... 12th July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jun. 2024) Export values grew y/y at the fastest pace in 15 months, with export volumes hitting record highs. We think exports will stay robust in the near term despite increased Western tariffs. Import volumes... 12th July 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Revisiting the outlook for the renminbi & the yen The continued weakness of the renminbi and the yen against the US dollar despite the narrowing of interest rate differentials via-a-vis the US is something of a conundrum, but our sense remains that... 11th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Shipping Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Shipping costs have now risen far enough to start adding to global CPI inflation. However, so far, the boost to prices is probably only in the region of 0.1%, on average. What’s more, surging freight... 10th July 2024 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun. 2024) Consumer price inflation edged down in June. Producer price deflation eased but this was entirely due to base effects. We still expect a slight uptick in CPI inflation over the coming months but... 10th July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC may struggle to tame the bond market The PBOC will soon start borrowing government bonds, opening the door to sales aimed at arresting the decline in long-term yields, which the central bank sees as a growing financial stability risk... 5th July 2024 · 8 mins read
