Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Diverging prospects Timely data suggest that April may have been the trough for EM GDP, and activity at an aggregate level should recover – albeit slowly – in the coming months. But this is likely to mask a significant... 29th May 2020 · 11 mins read
Global Markets Update China stimulus likely to provide only limited boost Additional stimulus from China strengthens our view that the rebound in equities will continue, especially in emerging markets. But the effect is unlikely to be as big as in 2008-09, and China’s... 29th May 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly HK security law pours fuel on US-China tensions The central government’s decision to impose national security legislation on Hong Kong risks undermining the city’s economic success and the US response may add to those headwinds. More broadly, the... 29th May 2020 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack Debt-to-GDP ratio to jump by most on record this year The government’s annual work report published on Friday made clear that policymakers will engineer an acceleration in credit growth this year. The report didn’t offer an explicit target for aggregate... 27th May 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lockdowns, infection rates and the EM recovery Large parts of Emerging Asia have controlled the virus exceptionally well, which should allow activity to recover quicker than in most other EMs. In contrast, many countries in Latin America are still... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Apr.) The latest data couldn’t be clearer: gold demand in the top two importing nations all but vanished in April. Imports should rise in the months ahead but will remain low by past standards. In any case... 26th May 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s stimulus plans and the implications for growth The fiscal plans unveiled by China’s leadership today are as expansive as those in 2009 but credit growth will remain far more constrained. The focus again is overwhelmingly on measures to boost... 22nd May 2020 · 17 mins read
Commodities Update Some initial thoughts on China’s NPC At the time of writing, we still lack the detail on China’s policy plans. That said, the headline expansion in the budget deficit and plans to boost credit growth are unequivocally positive for... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China infrastructure splurge to prop up iron ore price The fiscal stimulus announced today at the National People’s Congress in China failed to make much of a splash in metals markets. Nevertheless, we think it will underpin stronger iron ore demand this... 22nd May 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong’s future as a global city in doubt The move by China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) to impose a new security law on Hong Kong effectively overrides the “one country, two systems” framework that has allowed Hong Kong to prosper... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update The NPC delivers on policy stimulus We had anticipated that the National People’s Congress (NPC) would lay out plans for a further ramp up in policy support and it did not disappoint. The annual budget points to fiscal stimulus this... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China decoupling, property prices, trade outlook The main event this week is the opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) later today. We’ll publish our analysis of the key NPC reports once they are released. The NPC aside, US-China tensions... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update A temporary pause in rate declines Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. But the dovish tone of the PBOC’s latest monetary policy report and growing pressure on the central bank to do more, including calls for... 20th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Benefits of sovereign default more compelling than ever Recent reports suggest that governments of some low-income countries are reluctant to restructure debts owed to private creditors for fear of losing market access and pushing up future borrowing costs... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Apr.) Industrial output and investment rose year-on-year in April for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak. But retail sales and services activity continued to contract, held back by high unemployment... 15th May 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to watch at the NPC The 2020 growth target (or lack of one!) will be announced next Friday at the National People’s Congress (NPC) and will signal how confident the leadership is in a strong rebound and the degree to... 15th May 2020 · 5 mins read
