Global Markets Update We think that most EM currencies will rebound further While we think that much of the rebound in emerging market (EM) currencies is now behind us, we still expect that most of them will make a bit more headway against the dollar in the second half of the... 16th June 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update A faster recovery now likely We were already expecting China’s economy to return to its pre-virus path faster than other major economies and sooner than most forecasters anticipate. But with output already back to year-ago levels... 16th June 2020 · 5 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (May) State-led infrastructure construction jumped last month and pushed up growth in fixed asset investment and industrial production. Meanwhile, growth in services activity turned positive and suggests... 15th June 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Old” beats “new” in near-term infrastructure boost Despite all the recent focus on hi-tech “new infrastructure”, policymakers are still leaning far more heavily on traditional infrastructure construction, which looks set for a boom judging by the... 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are lockdowns being eased too soon? Policymakers in the likes of India, much of Latin America and parts of Africa are easing lockdowns even though the coronavirus is still spreading rapidly. This may be less economically damaging than... 11th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Early evidence of major fiscal damage Recently released government budget data for April suggest that fiscal deficits in many EMs, including in Brazil, Mexico, India and Turkey, may be running at 10-20% of GDP. This won’t cause a spate of... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) A jump in government bond issuance helped push credit growth to a 21-month high in May. The acceleration in credit growth has further to run and will add fuel to the economic recovery. 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Consumer price inflation slipped further last month due to falling food prices, while subdued demand continued to weigh on factory gate prices. But food prices aside, the recent decline in inflation... 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Another look at EM financial conditions Financial conditions have eased substantially across major EMs over the past few months, but we doubt that this fading headwind will turn into a major tailwind for activity in the coming quarters. 9th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports close to a trough Although China’s commodity imports volumes dropped in May, we expect the recent infrastructure-related fiscal support measures to lift domestic demand and commodity imports in the coming months. 8th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Which countries will rebound fastest? The high-frequency data that we track suggest that while economic activity is picking up across most of the region, the pace of recovery varies significantly by country. We expect China, Singapore... 8th June 2020 · 11 mins read
China Data Response Trade (May) Export growth turned negative last month as lockdowns abroad weighted on global demand. And the ongoing domestic recovery failed to keep import growth from slipping further. A global recovery and... 8th June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus ramp-up points to state-led recovery Government borrowing is ramping up as China begins to implement a stimulus package whose fiscal component is as large as that in 2009. There are other similarities too: despite pledges to direct more... 5th June 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of steeper EM yield curves? The steepening of EM local currency government bond yield curves since the crisis began in mid-February largely reflects a fall in short-term rates, but in some cases, like Brazil, Mexico and South... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs suggest the worst may be over for EM industry While we would interpret the May PMIs with caution, the small rise in the EM manufacturing PMI last month tallies with high-frequency indicators and suggests that EM activity is probably past the... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (May) The PMIs show that the recovery in activity extended into last month and appears to have broadened out into parts of manufacturing that were previously struggling. But there are few signs of a marked... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
