China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) Broad credit growth hit a two-year high in June and the recent uptick in interest rates is unlikely to prevent a further acceleration in the coming months. 10th July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Equity rally to boost growth but risks inflating a bubble Chinese equites surged this week, after state media talked up the value of a stock market rally in countering economic headwinds. Output may benefit in the short-run – at its peak the 2015 rally was... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Producer prices rose last month for the first time since the outbreak of COVID-19, adding to evidence that industrial demand had mostly recovered by the end of Q2. Core inflation fell to its weakest... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly The cost of going it “alone” Recent developments in Hong Kong and along the border with India are putting further strain on China’s relations with the rest of the world and accelerating the process of decoupling. This will make... 3rd July 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for EM inflation? A rebound in fuel inflation will push up headline inflation in most EMs over the coming months, even as food and core price pressures moderate. Alongside the recovery in activity, this means that the... 2nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: Manufacturing recovery underway The strong rise in the EM manufacturing PMI from 45.4 in May to 49.6 in June suggests that EM manufacturing is firmly on the road to recovery. We think that the rebound in activity will probably be... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI The Caixin manufacturing PMI suggests that the pace of the recovery increased in June, echoing the official survey which was released yesterday. This supports our view that GDP growth likely turned... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will we see a turn to austerity in EMs? Governments in Brazil and South Africa have outlined plans for large multi-year fiscal squeezes from 2021, which will hold back their economic recoveries and are likely to be politically untenable... 30th June 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs The latest survey data suggest that economic growth accelerated in June thanks to a faster recovery in manufacturing and services, alongside continued strength in construction activity. The recovery... 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Beijing adds to bond deluge, floods flag climate risks China's central government has embarked on a borrowing spree. This month's bond sales were the highest since 2007 and more is in the pipeline as the finance ministry plans to complete the issuance of... 26th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (May) Imports of gold into China and India in May were little changed from the previous month and continue to paint a grim picture for physical demand in the world’s top gold importing nations. We expect... 25th June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Export sector cushioned by COVID-linked demand China’s exports have held up remarkably well in the face of the sharp slump in global activity. They contracted just 3.3% y/y in US dollar terms in May. The detailed trade data published today show... 24th June 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Taking stock of the EM recovery The latest hard data, and our Covid Recovery Trackers, suggest that the downturn in EM GDP bottomed out in April and activity is now edging higher. But the recovery is uneven, with rebounds strong in... 22nd June 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged as rate cutting cycle nears an end Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. We may see a cut or two next quarter but most signs suggest that the bulk of monetary easing this cycle has already taken place. 22nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Monetary easing cycle nearing an end With fiscal stimulus ramping up and economic recovery well underway, the PBOC appears to see less of a need to encourage stronger private borrowing. Broad credit growth still looks set to accelerate... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Three key points on the latest export data EM goods exports have slumped during the coronavirus crisis but perhaps by less than might have been expected. Indeed, shipments from parts of Asia appear to have been boosted by a surge in demand for... 18th June 2020 · 4 mins read
