China Economics Weekly Stimulus is once again proving costly for banks The return on assets of Chinese banks fell to a record low last quarter after they heeded policymakers’ calls to step up lending and sacrifice profits in order to lower borrowing costs for struggling... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the latest EM coronavirus numbers Emerging markets account for the majority of new global coronavirus cases each day (see Chart 1) and, while containment measures may be tightened sporadically, these are generally likely to be... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Taking stock of Q2 GDP and the recovery so far The latest Q2 GDP figures show diverging depths of downturns between EMs (outside China), which can largely be explained by differences in the severity of virus outbreaks and the stringency of... 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Little appetite for further LPR declines Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. Given signs that the focus of monetary policy has shifted to containing financial risks on the back of the relatively rapid economic... 20th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports facing greater headwinds EM goods exports rebounded reasonably strongly in June and July but, with the global recovery showing signs of losing momentum, further gains from here are likely to be slow-going. 19th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Surge in truck sales adds to signs of a robust recovery Firms are adding to their fleets of trucks at the fastest pace in a decade, suggesting that they expect growth in industry to accelerate well above trend in the next few quarters. One near-term prop... 14th August 2020 · 5 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) The latest data suggest that China’s economy continued to recover in July, though less quickly than expected. But a slowdown in the recovery was always likely at some point as the initial boost from... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why Turkey contagion risks are smaller than in 2018 Concerns are mounting that Turkey is on the brink of a fresh currency crisis which, were it to materialise, could trigger some turbulence in other EMs’ financial markets. But it’s unlikely to result... 13th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account data suggest Turkish lira is an outlier A fundamental force behind the growing pressure on the Turkish lira is the economy’s widening current account deficit. But in most cases, the Covid-19 crisis appears to be causing current account... 12th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Broad credit growth hit its highest rate in nearly two and a half years last month as a pick-up in direct financing and shadow credit offset slower issuance of bank loans. The acceleration has further... 11th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s industrial commodity import volumes to fall China’s industrial import volumes rose in July, which is consistent with the recovery in economic activity and opportunistic stockpiling at low prices. While final commodity demand will remain strong... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly The Phase One trade deal is on borrowed time Next week’s semi-annual review of the Phase One trade deal will likely be a sobering affair given China’s limited progress toward meeting its purchase commitments. While both sides appear content to... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Jul.) Imports edged up in level terms, consistent with the ongoing recovery in domestic activity. Meanwhile, exports jumped thanks to stronger foreign demand and the ongoing boost from COVID-related... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Debt restructurings: lessons from Argentina & Ecuador Argentina and Ecuador’s swift debt restructuring deals may provide a blueprint for other debt-distressed sovereigns. But these deals are not quite the success stories they seem at first sight. In any... 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The official PMIs released on Friday had already pointed to a robust recovery at the start of Q3. But the Caixin index published today is even more upbeat and suggests that the pace of expansion in... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack State share of investment heading for a 10-year high Private investment is down 7.3% y/y so far this year, held back by the uncertain economic outlook. State firms have stepped in to fill the gap. Despite a sharp downturn at the time of China’s lockdown... 31st July 2020 · 12 mins read
