Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting the risks India’s banks entered the crisis in worse shape than other major EMs, although large state involvement in the financial sector means the government is unlikely to remain idle if loan losses start to... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs paint positive picture for commodities China’s October PMI data add weight to our view that Chinese economic growth will continue to accelerate, even though we estimate that the economy is already back to its pre-virus trend. This will... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Oct.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI points to an acceleration in manufacturing activity in October. Admittedly, the official survey released on Saturday pointed to a marginal slowdown. But taken together... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China’s five-year plan is too barebones to move prices Commodity prices have largely shrugged off the conclusion of China’s Fifth Plenum and discussion of the 14 th Five-Year Plan (FYP). This is not so surprising as the main takeaway from the event is... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update China’s five-year plan is too barebones to move prices Commodity prices have largely shrugged off the conclusion of China’s Fifth Plenum and discussion of the 14 th Five-Year Plan (FYP). This is not so surprising as the main takeaway from the event is... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s five-year plan is too barebones to move prices Commodity prices have largely shrugged off the conclusion of China’s Fifth Plenum and discussion of the 14 th Five-Year Plan (FYP). This is not so surprising as the main takeaway from the event is... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy expanded for the first time in over a year last quarter, thanks to fiscal stimulus and stronger foreign demand. Output is still well below its previous peak due to the double blow... 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Plenum readout heavy on ambition, light on detail The Fifth Plenum, held in Beijing to discuss the government’s 14 th Five-Year Plan and long-run goals, concluded yesterday. In its post-meeting communique, the leadership laid out ambitious plans to... 30th October 2020 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack The high stakes for China’s Five-Year Plan China’s leaders concluded their discussions on the 14th Five-Year Plan today. The initial post-meeting communique offered few new details but more may be revealed at a press conference tomorrow. The... 29th October 2020 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Asia leading the way The speed and strength of economic recoveries in emerging markets will continue to vary enormously by country, with China and some other parts of Asia leading and India, South Africa and much of Latin... 23rd October 2020 · 26 mins read
China Economics Weekly The “lose-lose” behind China’s self-sufficiency push A push to raise China’s self-sufficiency in key technology sectors looks likely to be a theme of the new Five-Year Plan that the leadership will discuss at next week’s Plenum. Many commentators appear... 23rd October 2020 · 5 mins read
China Activity Monitor Growth hits a two-year high Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth continued to accelerate last month, thanks to policy stimulus, strong foreign demand and fewer constraints on services activity. On our estimates... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Services still uneven but improving across the board The detailed breakdown of China’s Q3 GDP data published today shows that the recovery within the service sector remains highly uneven. Encouragingly though, all types of services activity showed a... 20th October 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged, hikes likely next year Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. With the PBOC appearing reluctant to keep monetary policy loose for longer than needed amid a broadening economic recovery, we think the... 20th October 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q3), Activity & Spending (Sep.) China’s economy continued its rapid rebound last quarter, with the recovery broadening out and becoming less reliant on investment-led stimulus. What’s more, the monthly data show that growth was... 19th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The US election and its impact on emerging markets Whatever the outcome of the US election, we expect that the trends of US-China decoupling and deglobalisation will continue. The election result could be pivotal for some EMs: a Joe Biden victory... 16th October 2020 · 5 mins read
