China Economics Weekly PBOC takes aim at digital payments duopoly The People’s Bank this week issued draft guidelines that would force China’s mobile payments giants to cede ground to their rivals or face being broken up. The argument that this is needed to foster... 22nd January 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economic Outlook A year of two halves China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and... 21st January 2021 · 22 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold for now but likely to end 2021 higher Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. But with monetary conditions already being tightened in practice and underlying inflation set to rebound, we think it is still likely... 20th January 2021 · 2 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor We doubt Chinese equities are in a bubble The valuations of Chinese equities have risen considerably over the past few months. But we don’t think that they are yet in a big bubble that is bound to burst soon. 19th January 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update All of the service sector now back to growth The detailed breakdown of China’s Q4 GDP data published today shows that the services sector, which had been lagging construction and industry, has returned to its pre-virus growth path, with all... 19th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the renminbi to resume its rally against the US dollar While the recent rise in Treasury yields may have contributed to a very small unwinding of last year’s significant rally in the renminbi against the US dollar, we expect China’s currency to strengthen... 18th January 2021 · 5 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.) On the official figures, China’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in two years last quarter. The monthly data suggest that growth dropped back slightly heading into 2021 but it remains strong. We... 18th January 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Less travel, more work this Lunar New Year With new virus cases at their highest in 10 months, local governments and firms are discouraging workers from travelling during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday. While this will deal a blow to... 15th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update After a stellar 2020, China’s imports to ease back The latest China trade data showed that commodity import volume growth eased back a little in December. But tailwinds from 2020’s stimulus should keep import volumes strong for a while yet. 14th January 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Dec.) Exports continued to do well last month, as renewed lockdowns abroad ensured the shift in consumption from services to goods persisted in many of China’s trading partners. Meanwhile, a pick-up in... 14th January 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) The slowdown in broad credit growth gathered momentum in December. We think credit growth will drop back further in the coming months as the PBOC continues to focus on reining in financial risks now... 13th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We expect Chinese equities to continue to underperform Chinese equities have underperformed those in other emerging markets since the vaccine news in November, and we expect this to continue in 2021. 11th January 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Headline inflation returned to positive territory last month as the drag from pork prices eased. Broader price pressures also edged up on the back of stronger demand. With underlying inflation likely... 11th January 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Virus disruptions linger but vaccines deliver This week’s lockdown of Shijiazhuang, a city of 11 million, is a reminder that sporadic flare-ups of COVID-19 are still imposing an economic cost on China. Domestic passenger travel in particular... 8th January 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Property sector facing new restrictions on credit The share of bank loans flowing to the property sector has doubled during the past 15 years. But new restrictions are likely to put an end to this upward trend. Coupled with broader limits on... 8th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China slowdown will weigh on metals prices in 2021 China’s December PMI readings suggest that the pace of economic expansion has started to ease, which chimes with our view that the demand for and, prices of, most metals will fall this year. 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
