China Economics Weekly What to expect at the NPC The National People’s Congress – the stage on which China's government sets out its economic plans – starts on Friday. We expect the budget to confirm the withdrawal of post-COVID fiscal support. It’s... 26th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Watch Taking stock of China’s agricultural “buying spree” In this Commodities Watch, we consider the impact that the recent surge in Chinese agricultural commodity imports has had on prices and whether it will be sustained. In our view, the rapid growth in... 26th February 2021 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack Defaults by state firms surge Incoming data continue to point to strength in domestic activity, spending and revenues. Yet strains in China’s corporate bond market continue to grow, with the value of defaults hitting all-time... 25th February 2021 · 12 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged but PBOC more hawkish Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged on Saturday. But monetary conditions have tightened in practice since the start of the year. We expect the PBOC to formalise the shift with... 22nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s “sorpasso” Our long-run forecasts suggest that China will still be the second largest economy, measured at market exchange rates, in 2050. The most likely scenario is that slowing productivity growth and a... 18th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China’s metal imports: three trends to keep an eye on With the first batch of Chinese trade data for 2021 not due for another few weeks, this Update outlines the key developments to look out for. Overall, we expect imports of refined metal to fall back... 17th February 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout will accelerate China appears once again to have successfully crushed the recent COVID-19 flare-up. Its vaccination campaign is looking less impressive and the original target for inoculations by Lunar New Year... 11th February 2021 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Headline consumer price inflation returned to negative territory last month, but this was largely due to a shift in the timing of the Lunar New Year. In fact, producer price inflation turned positive... 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Credit growth in China dropped back further last month due to a broad-based slowdown in both bank and non-bank lending. Credit is likely to continue decelerating as the PBOC focuses on reining in... 9th February 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Ant capitulates, officials chip away at hukou barriers The government is taking some further steps to boost labour market mobility by making it easier for migrants to settle and access healthcare in many of China’s cities. That will ease one constraint on... 5th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Metals demand to hold up, despite weaker China PMIs The latest fall in China’s manufacturing PMI readings is a further sign that its economy is slowing. Nevertheless, activity there, and elsewhere in Asia, remains strong and we think that it will hold... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Jan.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of expansion in the manufacturing sector slowed in January. But that’s not too surprising given that output was already well above trend – capacity utilisation... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal taps turned off, Spring Festival travel subdued A rush to meet annual spending targets pushed China’s quarterly budget deficit to the second largest on record at the end of 2020. But the government has now turned off the taps. Local government bond... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack Surge in interbank rates a hawkish signal from PBOC Short-term funding costs for banks have risen sharply during the past couple of weeks. The 7-day depository repo rate (DR007), which has been flagged by the PBOC as a key benchmark and focus of... 29th January 2021 · 13 mins read
China Economics Update This lockdown could boost the economy New restrictions on travel will disrupt Lunar New Year plans for many families in China but they should also reduce the disruption to manufacturing and construction that normally causes output to... 27th January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges down slightly at the end of 2020 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth softened slightly at the end of 2020 but remained strong on the back of a further improvement in services. Domestic consumption should continue to... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
