China Economics Update Quietly doubling down on Made in China 2025 The 14th Five-Year Plan makes clear that self-sufficiency has grown as a priority for China’s leadership. But it is light on specifics. The details will probably be fleshed out in the raft of industry... 19th March 2021 · 9 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.) Economic growth surged in y/y terms in January and February. But the picture is more mixed after accounting for favourable base effects. Travel restrictions weighed on retail sales but boosted... 15th March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Focus The 14th Five-Year Plan China’s new policy blueprint seeks above all to promote a large and hi-tech manufacturing sector, both as a defence against decoupling by the West and as a source of productivity gains. Policymakers... 15th March 2021 · 27 mins read
China Economics Weekly Plan signals property construction is set to slow The Five-Year Plan includes numerous targets and projections for how China’s economy will develop over the next few years. Among them are a couple that highlight growing structural constraints on... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s markets may diverge from those elsewhere Just as we expect China’s economy to slow later this year even as growth picks up rapidly elsewhere, we think China’s financial markets could stand out from those in the rest of the world in the... 11th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising bond yields and the threat to EM debt burdens The rise US Treasury yields poses a risk for those EMs with large external financing needs such as Turkey as well as some smaller frontier markets, and could force central banks in these countries to... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) After four months of consecutive declines, broad credit growth accelerated in February. But we think the slowdown in lending will resume before long given the hawkish signals out of the National... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) A drop in food inflation caused by shifts in the timing of the Lunar New Year meant that headline consumer price inflation remained in negative territory last month. That said, broader price pressures... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports likely to moderate further China’s trade data for January-February show a clear deceleration in the growth of commodity imports. We expect this trend to persist over the course of this year as policy support is gradually... 8th March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jan. & Feb.) Export and import growth surged in y/y terms in January and February. Even accounting for favourable base effects, shipments look strong. Exports continued to be buoyed by stuck-at-home foreign... 8th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Bond market jitters unlikely to trigger spate of EM crises While further market turmoil is a risk over the coming quarters, the likelihood of outright banking, sovereign debt and currency crises among the large EMs is low. More acute vulnerabilities lie in... 5th March 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update The NPC: Taking away the punch bowl The reports delivered at today’s opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) confirm that with the COVID-19 downturn now in the rear-view mirror the focus of China’s leadership has shifted away... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials strike hawkish tone ahead of the NPC The National People’s Congress has just kicked off in Beijing. We will publish an Update with our initial analysis once the key details from the meeting have been made public. Recent comments by... 5th March 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update Planning to do it alone The 14 th Five-Year Plan should provide a revealing view of the key challenges that China’s leadership believes it faces. High among them is a more hostile global environment. In the economic sphere... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Softer China PMIs not a huge concern, for now China’s February PMI data were more subdued but still suggest that economic activity remains elevated, and the data elsewhere in Asia point to persistent strength in commodities demand in the coming... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Feb.) The latest manufacturing surveys suggest that factory activity didn’t receive the boost we had anticipated from travel restrictions over the Spring Festival. Nevertheless, we think activity will... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
