Commodities Update China commodity trade: cutting through the noise China’s imports of key industrial commodities point to ongoing strength in domestic demand. But the bigger picture is that import volumes remain well below last year’s peaks, and we expect growth in... 13th April 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Mar.) Export and import growth remained elevated in y/y terms last month, even as base effects turned slightly less favourable. In level terms, exports dropped back slightly but imports continued to rise... 13th April 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar.) After an uptick in February, the slowdown in credit growth resumed in March. Hawkish signals in the government’s work report suggest that the deceleration will continue as policymakers focus on... 12th April 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC window guidance, census data gems The People’s Bank (PBOC) has struck a dovish tone in its recent public statements, parroting calls by China’s leadership for lower real lending rates. But media reports suggest that the PBOC is taking... 9th April 2021 · 8 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Consumer price deflation reversed last month due to a jump in fuel prices and an uptick in core inflation. But evidence of intensifying price pressures was clearest in producer price inflation, which... 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Consumer boycotts will accelerate decoupling Consumer boycotts of foreign firms in China are becoming more frequent and harder for the firms involved to deflect. Government restriction on multinationals’ foreign activities are also becoming more... 1st April 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to lower industrial metals prices Despite some conflicting messages from the official and unofficial PMI data out of China, both surveys continue to point to lower industrial metals prices. A pick-up in manufacturing activity and... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Vaccination steps up a gear China’s vaccination campaign has accelerated sharply over the past week. The daily pace of vaccination is now only just short of the five million needed to hit the target of inoculating 40% of the... 1st April 2021 · 11 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) After yesterday’s strong set of Official PMI data, the Caixin manufacturing index published today disappointed, falling to an eleven-month low. Taken together, the surveys are consistent with a slight... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Mar.) The latest surveys suggest that after being hit by virus disruptions earlier in the year, activity bounced back strongly this month. But we suspect it won’t be long before growth is slowing again. 31st March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Throwing in the towel on PBOC rate hikes Policy normalisation has run a long way already in China. Interbank rates have returned to near pre-pandemic levels. Credit growth has slowed. And a PBOC survey published yesterday signals that last... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Renminbi turning a corner The renminbi has gained 9% against the US dollar since last May. But the factors that underpinned this appreciation have faded. With US yields moving in the dollar’s favour and China’s economic... 26th March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Rebound levelling off as tighter policy starts to bite Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows a surge in year-on-year growth at the start of 2021. But the picture is more mixed after accounting for favourable base effects. Buoyant foreign demand boosted... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Deferring retirement would barely lift employment China’s statutory retirement ages are low. Raising them, as the Five-Year Plan proposes, would make the pension system more affordable but it wouldn’t make an appreciable difference to the ongoing... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold, PBOC signals preference for other tools Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged today. We have been forecasting the PBOC to hike rates this year but the likelihood of that is diminishing – the PBOC appears to favour... 22nd March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Acrimony in Alaska, Made in China, fiscal tightening, The acrimonious meeting in Alaska underlines that a new US administration has not led to a reset of US-China relations. China’s leadership has long appeared set on a course for industrial decoupling... 19th March 2021 · 5 mins read
