Emerging Markets Economics China is about to flood EMs with vaccines By September, China could be in a position to export 340mn vaccines doses each month – more than most regions of the world have administered in total so far. China’s vaccines are less effective than... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (May) Headline growth on all the key indicators dropped back last month. But after adjusting for base effects the picture was more mixed, with investment slowing, industrial output growth holding steady and... 16th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields and US stock market rotation We don’t expect the unwinding of the rotation trade in the US stock market over the past month or so, which has coincided with a pull-back in long-dated Treasury yields, to continue. 15th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Long Run Focus Global migration to bounce back Global migration has ground to a halt over the past year or so, but we doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact. Moreover, there is potential for migration to get a fresh impetus... 15th June 2021 · 21 mins read
Commodities Weekly Industrial slowdown in China a headwind for prices The prices of most industrial commodities held up fairly well this week. However, the slowdown in broad credit growth and the fall in volume terms of China’s imports of industrial commodities in May... 11th June 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China rivalry: industrial policy, vaccine diplomacy The US Senate took a leaf out of China’s industrial policy playbook this week by passing USICA, a bill that earmarks $190bn in federal funding for strategic sectors and bears striking similarities... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Broad credit growth continued to slide in May and is now at its slowest since February last year. Evidence of policy tightening weighing on borrowing is clearest in bank loan growth which, apart from... 10th June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Producer price inflation continued to surge and reached its highest level since September 2008 last month, on the back of a further rise in global commodity prices. That said, there are some signs in... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Slowing exports may weigh on China’s stock market We expect China’s stock market to eke out only small gains over the next couple of years, as slowing exports and domestic demand continue to weigh on corporate earnings. 7th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China’s iron and copper imports to fall further China’s imports of industrial commodities, particularly iron ore and unwrought copper, eased back in May. We expect import volumes of both these commodities to fall further in the coming months as... 7th June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (May) Headline trade growth remained elevated last month. But trade volumes dropped back in levels terms and, while supply constraints are partly to blame, there are signs that demand may have peaked too. 7th June 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Can the government spend its way to more births? While few observers believe the new three-child policy announced this week will do much to lift China’s birth rate, some are pinning higher hopes on the promise of more generous welfare benefits for... 4th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Prices to be falling by end-year Cold weather in parts of the northern hemisphere helped push up the prices of coal and natural gas last month, while oil prices also rose. We still think that average energy prices will be higher this... 2nd June 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply that goods shortages are pushing up prices The global manufacturing PMI held broadly steady in May as a sharp drop in India’s survey was offset by rises in other major economies whose recoveries appear to be continuing unabated. Meanwhile... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs may be as good as it gets The key takeaways from China’s May survey data are that while demand remains robust, supply shortages are leading to inventory drawdowns and price inflation. The data are broadly positive for... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May) Unlike the official PMI survey released yesterday, the Caixin manufacturing index published today rose last month. The key takeaway is that while output edged up on the back of still strong demand... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
