China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) After reaching a 12-year high in May, producer price inflation dropped back in June as the rally in global commodity prices faltered. Consumer price inflation declined too, on the back of a sharp drop... 9th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil to outperform in Q3 We expect strong growth in oil demand this quarter as virus-related travel restrictions are lifted in most of the largest consuming countries. At the same time, supply will remain relatively... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Changing views on China, export demand peaking While China’s Communist Party was celebrating its achievements at its official centenary this week, a global survey revealed a sharp decline in popular enthusiasm for economic engagement with China in... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Detailed China trade data highlight supply risks The breakdown of China’s trade data for May shows that the recovery in imports of scrap and tin ore has hit a few stumbling blocks. Were these issues to persist, they could help to put a floor under... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities China PMIs herald a period of slower growth China’s June survey data show softer growth in activity and supports our forecast that economic growth will slow from here, which will weigh on the prices of most commodities, especially the metals. 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Employment already declining at pace Revisions to the historic data following the recent census show that China’s population barely grew last year and that employment is already contracting faster than previously understood, having... 1st July 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The Caixin manufacturing index published today dropped back last month and adds to signs from the official PMI released yesterday that momentum in industry is waning. The surveys point to a levelling... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update We still think gold will lose its shine After rallying from April onwards, the price of gold has dropped back in recent weeks. We expect the price of gold to fall further over the next couple of years as long-dated US real yields climb. 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack No, China isn’t exporting inflation Some believe that China is adding to global inflationary pressure. The opposite is closer to the truth: the large increase in China’s trade surplus over the past year signals that supply from China... 30th June 2021 · 13 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Jun.) The latest surveys suggest that growth softened this month. A slower improvement in services activity was mostly to blame. But supply shortages also continued to hold back output in the manufacturing... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Port congestion easing, border reopening timeline Disruption at China’s busiest container terminal has added to the strains on global trade in recent weeks. But the situation may now be turning a corner, with signs that port congestion is starting to... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports may be peaking EM goods exports have surged in Q2. There are some early indications that EM exports will now come off their record highs, but they are still likely to stay at elevated levels throughout the rest of... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Employment already declining at pace Revisions to the historic data following the recent census show that China’s population barely grew last year and that employment is already contracting faster than previously understood, having... 24th June 2021 · 6 mins read
China Activity Monitor Still strong but probably close to a cyclical peak Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output remained strong in May but didn’t rise much further, with slowing credit growth weighing on construction and China’s pandemic-induced export boom... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold as PBOC leans on other policy tools Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold again today. The PBOC has now fully reversed last year’s credit acceleration using quantitative controls. Accordingly, policy rate hikes that... 21st June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Inflation unlikely to rise any further this year While the prospect of rising inflation is a key global concern, in China disinflationary pressures have been building and we are revising down our forecast for consumer price inflation over the second... 18th June 2021 · 5 mins read
