China Data Response China PMIs (Jul.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of growth slowed more than expected last month. Supply bottlenecks remain a constraint. But the PMIs suggest demand is cooling too, taking the heat out of... 2nd August 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Delta putting zero-COVID approach under strain China’s ability to quash COVID flare-ups is being tested again: the Delta variant outbreak that was identified in Nanjing last week has already spread further within China than any since the first... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack Investors refocus on long-term concerns Questions about the strength of China’s post-lockdown rebound have become louder since the People’s Bank cut the required reserve ratio three weeks ago. But the trigger for this week’s sharp equity... 30th July 2021 · 13 mins read
Global Economics The global implications of a slowdown in China The slowdown that we anticipate in China over the next 6-12 months is best viewed as a return to normality following a period of above-trend output. While it will be a headwind to growth in some... 23rd July 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Coming down to earth China’s economy has been defying gravity thanks to elevated global demand but this support may now be fading. Meanwhile, last year’s policy easing has been fully reversed. An abrupt slowdown is not... 23rd July 2021 · 22 mins read
China Economics Weekly Evergrande is a poster child for property sector risks Evergrande appears to be getting closer to a reckoning over the scale of its liabilities as regulators, banks and local governments tighten the screws. It is just the largest of many developers that... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
China Activity Monitor Downhill from here? Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth accelerated in q/q terms last quarter but that output edged down in June on the back of softer industrial and construction activity. We think China... 22nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Focus The implications for China and the world of eCNY In this Focus we detail what is known about China’s central bank digital currency and analyse its implications for China and the world. The Focus is fully updated to incorporate the latest publicly... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
Asia Economics Rates to remain low as virus disruption worsens Surging infections across South East Asia and the slow progress of vaccine rollouts mean that COVID-19 will continue to cause widespread economic disruption across large parts of the region until at... 20th July 2021 · 34 mins read
China Economics Weekly Consumers are playing their part China’s post-lockdown recovery is a lot less patchy than generally thought. Today’s detailed GDP figures suggest that, apart from in pockets like tourism and restaurants, the retail sector is... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.) China’s GDP growth dropped back in y/y terms last quarter as the base for comparison became less flattering. In q/q terms, output rose at a slightly faster pace than in Q1, when a flare-up in virus... 15th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities China’s industrial metals imports to weaken further China’s imports of most industrial commodities continued to fall in June. We expect import volumes of near all commodities, but especially the industrial metals, to ease further in the months ahead as... 13th July 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jun.) Headline trade growth was stronger than expected last month, partly thanks to an increased supply of semiconductors. But exports remained below their recent peak and we still think shipments will... 13th July 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly A milestone in financial decoupling Decoupling has entered a new phase over the past year. Where China previously was trying to temper US efforts to decouple, in key areas it now appears to want the same. This week a turning point was... 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update RRR cut marks shift in focus, even if not major easing The People’s Bank (PBOC) has just announced a 50 basis point cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR) for most banks. This is less of a lurch towards monetary easing than it might seem at first glance... 9th July 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) Credit growth levelled off in June having previously decelerated to the pre-pandemic pace. We suspect this is a pause rather than an end to the slowdown – today’s RRR cut notwithstanding. Either way... 9th July 2021 · 2 mins read
