Commodities Focus

China’s gold rush has much further to run

Against the backdrop of central bank buying, strong physical gold demand, and a surge in ETF holdings, China appears to have been a key driver of the rally in gold prices earlier this year. Looking...

29th August 2024 · 16 mins read

China Rapid Response

PBOC buys bonds today but will be selling soon

The PBOC has just revealed that it purchased RMB400bn of government bonds from primary dealers today. This might seem like an odd move given that the central bank has spent recent months trying to...

29th August 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

PBOC at the mercy of leadership’s muddled priorities

The PBOC appears poised to step up its efforts to prevent bond yields from falling, even though lower borrowing costs would help the economy right now. The inconsistencies in its policy approach are...

29th August 2024 · 6 mins read

FX Markets Update

We think Asian currencies’ rallies will slow, not stop

We expect most Asian currencies to make further gains against the US dollar over time, even if their biggest rallies may now be behind them.

27th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

No need to cry over subsidised milk

This week’s EU-China spat over EV and dairy duties was interpreted by the EU’s Chief diplomat as a sign that a trade war may be “unavoidable”, but we think it is actually evidence that both sides will...

23rd August 2024 · 8 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Officials ease price controls, mull direct homebuying

Allowing local governments to use special bond issuance to directly purchase unsold homes could address the lack of SOE participation in the current property destocking scheme. But this approach would...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Recycling’s role in securing critical minerals and metals

China’s announcement last week that it would curb exports of antimony, a critical mineral, was another example of global fracturing unfolding in the commodities arena. Recycling offers an obvious way...

21st August 2024 · 3 mins read

Climate Economics Update

A new high for China green exports despite EV tariffs

China’s electric vehicle exports rose strongly in July despite EU tariffs coming into force. This, alongside the continued surge in battery exports, lifted our measure of China’s green export volumes...

20th August 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Not a balance sheet recession, yet

Weak credit data has stoked fears of a balance sheet recession in China. While the economy is still far from reaching that point, the private sector will eventually start to cut down on its borrowing...

16th August 2024 · 6 mins read

China Economics Focus

How to fix China’s property destocking scheme

The property support measures included in yesterday’s stimulus announcement won’t be enough to drive a turnaround in the housing market. In a detailed analysis of the government’s property destocking...

16th August 2024 · 18 mins read

Capital Daily

Assessing the outlook for China’s stocks and bonds

We think there is better news on China’s economy in the pipeline that could underpin a rally in its lowly valued stock market. But in our view there is less scope for gains in China’s bonds.

15th August 2024 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Activity & Spending (Jul. 2024)

After slowing in Q2, economic momentum appears to have stabilised somewhat last month, with a pick-up in consumer spending and services activity largely offsetting a slowdown in investment and...

15th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Global imbalances will continue to fuel fracturing

The renewed widening of global imbalances has become another faultline in the fracturing of the world economy, and will continue to provoke trade barriers in the coming decades. With overall...

14th August 2024 · 17 mins read

India Economics Update

What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing

Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs...

13th August 2024 · 5 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.)

Broad credit growth ticked up in July, while bank loan growth only slowed a touch. (See Chart 1.) We expect a continued acceleration in government bond issuance to support a further expansion of...

13th August 2024 · 2 mins read