China Economics Update Inequality moves up the CPC’s agenda China’s leadership has signalled a growing focus on reducing inequality. This could boost the productivity of low-income households and speed up the long-touted rebalancing toward consumption. But, if... 19th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Tide is turning against steel production in China The government in China has stepped up measures to tackle pollution and excess capacity in the domestic steel sector over the past few months. This adds weight to our view that steel production, and... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia bucks the monetary policy trend Several EM central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month or so in response to strong reopening rebounds (Chile, Czech Republic, Hungary) and/or rising inflation concerns... 18th August 2021 · 10 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Cooling Chinese growth to weigh on metal prices China’s latest activity data are further evidence of a slowdown in its economy. This aligns with our view that industrial metals demand will soften in the year ahead, putting downward pressure on... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Five years on from the “End of a Golden Age” Five years ago this October, we published a piece arguing that the “golden age” for emerging markets had ended and that they were entering a period of permanently weaker growth. Since then, many of... 18th August 2021 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Jul.) There was a broad-based slowdown in all the key indicators last month. This partly reflects disruptions to consumer activity due to the recent virus flare-up and flooding in central China. But... 16th August 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Delta wave may have peaked but it won’t be the last Aggressive containment measures, mass testing and quarantine appear already to be bringing China’s Delta outbreak under control. The economic cost should be fleeting – but it will be felt beyond China... 13th August 2021 · 6 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Aug.) OPEC’s oil production soared in July as Saudi Arabia unwound the bulk of its voluntary output cut. Although OPEC left its demand forecast unchanged, we think that the near-term demand outlook has... 12th August 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) After stabilising in June, broad credit growth resumed its downward trajectory in July and is now at its slowest since February last year. We expect the slowdown and resulting headwind to the economy... 11th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Lower China commodity imports here to stay The latest trade data out of China adds to the evidence that demand growth in the world’s key commodity consumer is slowing. This supports our view that the broad-based rally in commodity prices from... 9th August 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Inflation / Trade (Jul.) Rising factory gate prices for electronics products signal that supply chains are still tight but, with both semiconductor imports to China and China’s exports of electronics rising over the past... 9th August 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Delta disruption spreads as vaccine exports soar Escalating efforts to contain China’s first Delta variant outbreak will hurt some sectors of the economy. But if they are as successful as they have been in the past, the overall damage will be... 6th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Bonds & Equities We doubt valuations will support China’s stock market While measures of the valuation of China’s stock market have fallen recently, we don’t expect them to rebound soon. This helps to underpin our fairly downbeat forecasts for the country’s stock indices... 5th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation The asset allocation implications of China’s slowdown The further slowdown we expect in China would probably be a headwind for some “risky” assets that are particularly sensitive to its economic cycle. It also informs our view that China’s sovereign... 4th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Asian industry struggles, strong recoveries in EM Europe June’s PMIs show that virus outbreaks have weighed on manufacturing in Southeast Asia while supply bottlenecks and weaker demand created headwinds for industry in China. In contrast, Indian industry... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to weaker metals demand China’s July survey data suggest that manufacturing and construction activity have continued to cool, which supports our view that a slowdown in China will weigh heavily on industrial metals prices. 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
