Emerging Markets Economics Update EM current account balances: where do the risks lie? With external positions in decent shape in most major EMs, the macroeconomic fallout from any tightening of external financing conditions should be limited. But there are a handful of EMs which look... 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery comes off the boil The EM manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that virus disruptions and supply chain constraints held back output in much of Emerging Asia. Manufacturing slowed in most other EMs too, although there... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China aluminium output: how worried should we be? Aluminium prices have recently been boosted by a series of supply outages in China. But unlike Chinese steel production, where declines have been driven largely by government policy which looks here... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs support our forecast of lower metals prices The China PMI data for August continue to suggest that commodity demand in the world’s largest consumer is coming off the boil. As a result, the wedge between industrial metals prices and the China... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The Caixin manufacturing index dropped to an 18-month low in August, adding to signs from the official PMI released yesterday that industry is coming off the boil. The surveys point to worsening... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Party soon to target property and healthcare costs A WeChat post by a prominent blogger voicing support for Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign has been widely re-published by state media, giving it a rare seal of Party approval. The post argues... 31st August 2021 · 13 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Aug.) The latest surveys suggest that China’s economy contracted last month as virus disruptions weighed heavily on services activity. Industry also continued to come off the boil as supply chain... 31st August 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Dollar depreciation unlikely to last There was a dramatic turnaround in the fortunes of commodities prices this week, with across-the-board gains as risk appetite picked up and the US dollar eased back. Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, was... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack China’s growth slowdown may hold back EM equities We think slower growth in China will continue to weigh on the country’s stock market, as well as those of some other emerging markets (EMs). 27th August 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property comedown, vaccine setback The macro backdrop behind Evergrande’s latest profit warning is a rapidly cooling property market. Home sales have fallen below 2019 levels in recent weeks, with the prop to demand from excess... 27th August 2021 · 5 mins read
China Activity Monitor Delta speed bump not the only drag Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output dropped back further in July. This shouldn’t be dismissed as a temporary setback due to the recent virus outbreak. The main drag last month came... 24th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update A few points to make on extreme weather events Some of our forecasts for commodity prices this year have been blown off course by extreme weather events. As economists we cannot pretend to have insight into future weather patterns, but we can... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Growth jitters, tech woes, Huarong lifeline There was plenty for China watchers to digest during the past week. Weak data for July added to growth fears, with virus disruptions and tighter credit conditions meaning that worse is still to come... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold but cuts on the horizon Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold for a 16th straight month today. But with the economy losing momentum, we think it won’t be long before the PBOC is guiding rates lower. Even so... 20th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Gains in EM equities may be small from here We don’t expect emerging market (EM) equities, as a whole, to rack up big gains over the next few years thanks in part to the spillovers of lower growth in China. 19th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Watch Oil prices would still fall even if OPEC expands In this Energy Watch, we discuss the future of OPEC and its role in the oil market. While we suspect that its membership may expand, we think that its ability to influence oil prices will fall over... 19th August 2021 · 7 mins read
