China Economics Update Property crunch will be followed by lasting decline The root of Evergrande’s troubles – and those of other highly-leveraged developers – is that residential property demand in China is entering an era of sustained decline. Relaxation of regulatory... 15th September 2021 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Aug.) The hit to service activity from last month’s virus outbreak was even larger than we, and other forecasters, had anticipated. The rest of the economy held up better, although the headwinds facing the... 15th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Putting risky asset valuations into context This Update compares the valuations of the twelve different “risky” asset classes that we cover on our Asset Allocation service, both relative to one another and to the yields of “safe” assets, as... 13th September 2021 · 5 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) The rise in OPEC’s oil output fell well short of its target in August. And given a higher oil demand forecast for 2022, alongside growing external pressure, we think that the risks are tilting towards... 13th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly More of the same Commodity markets have been relatively quiet over the last few weeks, with many prices trading in a narrow range. There are a few exceptions, most notably the prices of natural gas and coal, which... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
CE Spotlight How long will pandemic price pressures last? Global supply problems could put some further upward pressure on inflation in the near term, but the increase in inflation experienced in the immediate wake of the COVID crisis is close to peaking and... 10th September 2021 · 22 mins read
Energy Update How long will coal and gas prices remain sky-high? Coal and natural gas prices have soared around the world on the back of unseasonable weather and disruptions to supply. And even if the weather normalises and supply rebounds soon, we expect prices to... 10th September 2021 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Credit growth dropped in August to its slowest pace since December 2018. With the PBOC now shifting gears to a slightly more supportive stance, credit growth may level off in the coming quarters. But... 10th September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Evergrande credit risks, border controls China’s banking system has large enough capital buffers to absorb an Evergrande collapse provided that the PBOC steps in to backstop the interbank market. Meanwhile, the one-sided reopening of the HK... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Evergrande circling the plughole Evergrande’s collapse would be the biggest test that China’s financial system has faced in years. Policymakers’ main priority would be the households that have handed over deposits for properties that... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Evergrande & frontier sovereign debt risks build The combination of large foreign-currency debt burdens, low FX reserves and weakening currencies means that the risk of sovereign defaults in Sri Lanka and Tunisia is growing. Elsewhere, China’s... 9th September 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Producer price inflation reached its highest since August 2008 last month due to the rally in global commodity prices. But the breakdown suggests that upward pressure on the factory-gate prices of... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Jump in China commodity imports a flash in the pan China’s imports of key commodities rose almost across the board in August, but we doubt that this is the start of a new upwards trend. Instead, with many of the factors that had boosted demand now... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Aug.) Exports and imports were much stronger than anticipated last month thanks to buoyant demand, even as the data point to some lingering supply shortages. We continue to think shipments will soften in... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Regulatory crackdown or ideological campaign? What looked like a tech crackdown, broadened to a crackdown on large private firms, then to a wider regulatory push. This week it started to resemble a society-wide ideological campaign aimed at... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
